According to the price monitoring of business agencies, the domestic PTA spot market has rebounded slightly recently. As of November 18, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 3256 yuan / ton, up 4.41% compared with November 9, and down 32.04% year-on-year. In the futures market, PTA main futures (2101) closed up on November 18 and closed at 3416, up 30% or 0.89% compared with the previous trading day. Strong crude oil and low PTA prices, speculative bottom mentality to support the current price.
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Recent domestic PTA unit: 10000 tons / year
Change of enterprise name capacity device
Yangzi Petrochemical 35 will start maintenance in the afternoon of November 3, 2020, and the restart time is to be determined
Yadong Petrochemical 70 overhaul from November 13 to November 28, 2020
Chuanneng chemical 100, November 17, 2020, overhaul for 5 days
Zhongtai Petrochemical 120 will start maintenance for 2 months on September 30, 2020
Hanbang Petrochemical 220 will reduce the load to 60-70% on November 13, 2020, and return to normal on November 14, 2020.
In terms of units, in November, the domestic PTA plant maintenance plan was significantly reduced. At the beginning of the month, Yangzi Petrochemical started to repair 350000 tons, and the restart time is to be determined; Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. of 700000 tons started maintenance for 15 days on the 13th; Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. of 2.2 million tons reduced the load to 60-70% on the 13th and returned to normal on the 14th. Sichuan Energy Investment Co., Ltd. started maintenance for about 5 days on November 17. The operating load of PTA industry is still maintained at a high level of 86%, and the cumulative stock is expected to increase. At present, the social inventory of PTA is nearly 4 million tons, which has increased by 2.6 million tons compared with the same period last year.
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The supply and demand side is not good. Some downstream polyester factories promote sales, and the overall production and sales are not booming. The average production and sales of mainstream large factories are 100% – 150%, and some better factories are 170%. The overall inventory is concentrated in 24-36 days. In terms of price, the price of polyester filament factory is stable for the time being, and polyester POY (150D / 48F) of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province is quoted at 5100-5350 yuan / ton. In terms of the starting rate, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped slightly to about 91%.
Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the current high level of crude oil shocks, PTA accumulates inventory, the market mentality is cautious, and the overall demand is tepid. It is expected that PTA market will fall back in the future.
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