Strong demand and low inventory, copper price rises sharply

1、 Trend analysis

 

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On November 16, the spot copper price was 53705 yuan / ton, which was 3.22% higher than the previous day, 9.53% higher than the beginning of the year, and 14.39% higher than the same period last year. Shanghai copper’s main force rose sharply to 53800 yuan today, and since then it has been operating in a narrow range, closing at 53640 yuan, up 2.80%. Luntong copper’s 3-month contract fluctuated after the opening, and then fluctuated after a sharp rise. The Asian market closed at US $7170.5, up 2.44%.

 

Copper prices rose sharply today, with RCEP agreement boosting market sentiment at the beginning of the week. However, macroeconomic data in October showed that the domestic economy recovered steadily, domestic terminal market demand performed well, automobile production and sales showed growth for seven consecutive months, investment in real estate development increased, and electricity consumption of the whole society increased year on year in September.

 

According to the data of CAAC, the auto sales volume in October reached 2.573 million units, up 12.5% year-on-year. As of October, automobile production and sales showed growth for seven consecutive months. Among them, the growth rate of sales volume remained above 10% for six consecutive months. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to September, the investment in real estate development increased by 5.6% year on year, 1% higher than that in the previous eight months, and the real estate boom has rebounded for many months. In addition, the demand for cables, transportation and electronic terminals also recovered significantly.

 

In addition, the weekly inventory of the previous period continued to drop sharply, with a decrease of more than 10% last week. On November 13, London Metal Exchange (LME) reported the latest inventory of 165200 tons of copper, 1000 tons less than the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.60%.

 

In view of the above situation, the macro boost, good supply and demand structure, strong demand superimposed on the current low inventory, copper prices may still have a certain upward space in the future.

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