In November, the domestic epoxy resin market rose sharply. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the liquid resin price in East China is 29500-30000 yuan / ton, and the current liquid resin price has reached the peak value in nearly three years. In terms of factories, in November, most factories closed their offer and did not quote. This week, the prices of major factories were quoted one after another, which was true. Among them, the reference offers of Yangnong Jinhu, Nantong Xingchen and Baling Petrochemical were 29500 yuan / ton, and those of Changchun chemical and Jiangsu Sanmu were listed at 30000 yuan / ton.
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Epoxy resin has been going up like crazy. On the one hand, orders from downstream markets are constantly on the one hand, and there is no pressure on factories to ship. On the other hand, under the stimulation of mutual benefit, first of all, epoxy resin stimulates the upstream raw material bisphenol A to pull up, and then the supply of bisphenol A enters a tense situation, which further rises under the shortage of supply, which in turn further stimulates the epoxy resin to continue to catch up. The details are as follows:
On the one hand, the downstream wind power industry of epoxy resin continued to make efforts. It is reported that GWEC predicts that the world’s new wind power installed capacity will reach a record 71.3gw in 2020 (the original record was 63.8 GW in 2015), which is only 6% lower than the forecast at the beginning of the year (before the new crown epidemic). In 2021, the global installed capacity will be further increased to 78gw, because some wind power projects delayed by the epidemic this year will be installed next year.
At the same time, based on the judgment of the “rush to install” trend of China’s market, GWEC’s forecast of the global offshore wind power installation in 2020 is higher than that before the epidemic. In the five years from 2020 to 2024, more than half of the world’s new wind power installed capacity will come from the two major markets of China and the United States, and the cumulative installed capacity of global wind power will exceed 1 tw (1 billion kw) by 2024.
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On the other hand, from the cost side analysis, the cost side of raw materials “soaring” is strong. One of the most important raw materials is bisphenol A. The bisphenol a market was first affected by the sharp upward trend of the downstream epoxy resin industry. At the beginning of November, the bisphenol a market rose by nearly 20%. On the first working day of last week’s opening, the factories increased 600-800 yuan / ton one after another, and the mainstream offer of the factory was 14800 yuan / ton, a new high in the year. However, most of the opening factories closed their offers this week, among which Lihua yiweiyuan’s guiding price was 18200 yuan / ton, while in the market, there were few offers from shippers, domestic supply was very tight, and only a small number of large traders still had goods in their hands, and it was heard that today’s small order was 18500 yuan / ton, and there was still room for expansion in the current tight supply.
Another important raw material epichlorohydrin market also showed a rising trend. At present, epichlorohydrin closed at 12600 yuan / T, with no intention of downward adjustment.
From the current point of view, although the gross profit of epoxy resin is rich, the orders of major factories are relatively sufficient. Next month, there are Changchun chemical industry’s 15 day shutdown and maintenance plan from December 10 to 25, Nantong Xingchen’s 10 day annual shutdown maintenance plan in late December, and Kunshan Guodu is expected to temporarily fail to resume production, and the overall output of the whole month will be reduced by nearly 20000 tons There will still be a tight supply situation, there is little possibility that the resin factory will yield profits, the market will still be in short supply, and the price forecast is still likely to rise.
From the perspective of business agencies, the short-term epoxy resin market has no downward expectation under the tense situation of factory supply. The current factory orders are sufficient, and the short-term liquid epoxy resin will run at about 30000 yuan / ton.
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