1、 Price trend
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According to the monitoring of commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose in the first ten days of November. On November 1, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 16250 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 16350 yuan / ton. The price rose by 0.62% within the month.
2、 Market analysis
In the first ten days of November, the price of domestic yellow phosphorus market was stable and rising. At present, the overall trend of the domestic yellow phosphorus market is relatively stable, manufacturers mainly issue early orders, and the yellow phosphorus market spot is slightly tense. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16500 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation in Guizhou is relatively stable at around 16200 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 16500 yuan / ton. Due to the rising cost, the yellow phosphorus enterprises intend to raise the price, but the downstream acceptance is not high.
In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, as of November 10, Guizhou Province: 30% grade phosphate ore truck plate quotation reference 300-360 yuan / ton, 28% grade phosphate ore truck plate quotation reference 280-320 yuan / ton, of which Guizhou Fuquan Huifa 28% grade phosphate rock goods factory quotation reference 300 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the month, 30% grade phosphate rock freight factory quoted 340 yuan / ton, up from the beginning of the month 20 yuan / ton. Guangxi region: 30% grade phosphate ore truck plate quotation reference 300-360 yuan / ton, 28% grade phosphate ore plate quotation reference 280-320 yuan / ton, Guangxi songgan 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant quotation reference 300 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the month, 30% grade phosphate rock freight factory quoted 340 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the month.
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In terms of coke, as of the 11th, the mainstream price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2330 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day and 200 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month. On the whole, coke prices are relatively strong. Following the seventh round of increase of 50 yuan / ton by coke enterprises in Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu and other major production areas, Shandong announced that since 0:00 on November 11, the ex factory price of metallurgical coke of coke production enterprises in Weifang, Binzhou, Dezhou, Jining, Zaozhuang, Heze, Rizhao, Tai’an, etc. has increased by 50 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream steel mills have not responded to this question The final landing depends on the Acceptance Intention of downstream steel mills.
In terms of demand, the domestic phosphoric acid market is stable and small, with sporadic and small increases. After being strongly supported by the cost side in the early stage, the business offers continued to rise, and the trading center shifted upward. Taking Hubei Xingfa group as an example, it is now up to 4900 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 100 yuan. Other regions still have bullish expectations, and the market center of gravity begins to move up. At present, the spot price of raw material yellow phosphorus market is slightly tense, and the manufacturers intend to support the price. However, the downstream demand is not followed up enough, the transaction enthusiasm is not high, and most manufacturers are in a wait-and-see state. In the short term, the market of phosphoric acid is slightly deadlocked. At present, the quotations of mainstream manufacturers refer to 4700-5600 yuan / ton, slightly rising.
3、 Future forecast
The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business society believes that the price of yellow phosphorus has risen steadily in the first ten days of November. Raw material phosphate rock rose slightly, and the production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises increased. In autumn and winter, due to the environmental protection requirements of atmospheric monitoring, some yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas have reduced production, shut down furnace and suspended receiving orders. Make yellow phosphorus spot tight, yellow phosphorus is expected to remain bullish in the short term, but the increase is limited.
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