1、 Price trend
| Sodium Molybdate |
According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic toluene market has been stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic market average price was about 3300 yuan / ton, down 0.3% month on month.
2、 Analysis and comment
Supported by the rebound of international crude oil price, toluene price trend is stable this week. Sinopec’s enterprises listed toluene price stable this week. Port inventory fell slightly, but the pressure to the warehouse did not decrease. Market oversupply, downstream blending oil and solvent demand is general, price is weak, demand has not improved. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3330 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.
In terms of crude oil, API and EIA data released in the early morning and night of Beijing time showed that the crude oil storage data of the United States last week was significantly lower than expected, and the news that OPEC + and Russia are considering a more substantial reduction in production at the beginning of next year boosted the bottom of the international crude oil recovery at the beginning of the week. However, the new epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is becoming more and more severe, and the result of the US election is still pending, which makes the market sense As of Friday, Brent rose 2.095 USD / barrel to 38.3 USD / barrel, up 5.79% from last week. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.
Downstream, TDI continued the downward trend this week, the market mentality is cautious, trading atmosphere is weak, pay attention to factory policy guidance. At present, 15000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 15500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to decline. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 498 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 516 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will continue to decline.
3、 Future forecast
According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that toluene in the domestic market will be weak and fluctuate slightly next week.
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