According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market was mainly adjusted in October, and the offer was arranged and operated. Spot prices of various brands have been up and down. As of November 1, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8150 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.
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Cause analysis
The domestic (Shandong) market of PP upstream propylene was stable in the first half of October, and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half. In the first half of the month, some propylene units were overhauled, and the overall supply remained tight. The monthly high price was 7530 yuan / ton on October 8 and 9. However, there were a large number of goods inflow in Northeast China at the end of last week, and the pressure on manufacturers and dealers to ship goods increased, and the operation was biased to yield profits. Downstream continued a small number of low-cost procurement, the market trading atmosphere is weak. At the end of the month, the price is 6736 yuan / ton. On the whole, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is gradually increasing. The price of far upstream crude oil is going down, the downstream supply is sufficient, and external sources are entering. The market is slightly negative, and the price has dropped a lot in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will be affected by detailed inventory in the near future, or stabilize after a small decline.
Propylene fell after rising in October, insufficient support for PP cost side. According to the data monitored by the business agency, PP (wire drawing) market performance is relatively stable this month. Downstream demand is high after the festival, which has a certain support for the spot price. In terms of inventory, the cumulative inventory of petrochemicals exceeded expectations in the last ten days of this month, but the inventory level was still in the moderate position in season, and the port inventory was still low. Although the increase before the festival makes the recent PP gradually appear high pressure, but at the end of the month, some enterprises temporarily shut down, and the ex factory prices of the two oil parts are stable. In terms of demand, at present, the sentiment of downstream inquiry is flat, and the trading just needs to be given priority to, focusing on the low price. Automobile, household electrical appliances and other closed parts industry demand is strong, and the response of the external plate film material market is not good. PP analysts are concerned about the impact of new capacity that may be released in November on the spot price of PP.
According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of November 1, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 8283.33 yuan / ton. 80% lower than the average price at the beginning of the month. The monthly high appeared early on the 14th at 8383.33 yuan / ton, and the overall operation was stable in the first half of the month. At the end of the month, the average operating rate of domestic PP producers dropped by about 3% compared with that before the festival. However, at present, the supply of fiber material market is sufficient and the competition pressure among refineries is great. Although some fiber material profit recovery, downstream buying enthusiasm is general. In terms of futures, the amplitude of shock is gradually increasing, and it is difficult to say the impact on the mentality of the operators, and the business operation tends to be cautious. In November, demand began to weaken from the peak, the current market to wait-and-see atmosphere. PP (fiber) is expected to be finished in the near future.
PP melt blown material market finishing in October, domestic PP melt blown material market overall confidence is still not strong. According to the data monitored by the business agency, since October, PP (melt blown) material has been adjusted. As of November 1, the average price of sample enterprises is about 14100.00 yuan / ton. At present, the epidemic situation in China is generally stable. Recently, relevant experts have taken the lead to consolidate the epidemic prevention measures and strictly prevent the rebound. At the end of the month, many places in Shandong and Xinjiang were tentatively designated as medium and high-risk areas, and the demand may come next, which has not yet been reflected in the spot price. The trend of the second outbreak of overseas epidemic is obvious, many countries announced to close the city again, the non-woven fabric in the application of medical protection is sought after again, the demand is expected to rise, and the production capacity of China is expected. However, due to the competition of domestic anti epidemic product manufacturers, the profits of enterprises are seriously diluted, and the price of meltblown fabrics and materials is difficult to rise. At present, the price of PP (melt blown) is relatively low, and it is expected that the melt blown material will recover due to the influence of demand expansion in the near future.
Future forecast
PP business agency analysts believe: October domestic PP spot market prices are generally stable. Upstream propylene market high down, price reduction, the cost of PP support weakened. PP (drawing) new production capacity late, price temporarily stable. PP (fiber) market shock finishing, PP (melt blown) demand is expected to rise. At the end of the month, petrochemicals inventory decreased smoothly, and the recent trend of futures rose, which was good for spot. Downstream factory stock purchase just need to operate, conflict with high price goods, business mentality is flat. PP spot is expected to strengthen in the near future.
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