According to the price monitoring of the business agency, after more than 10 days of continuous decline, PTA market rose slightly today (November 3). The average price of spot market on that day was 3252 yuan / ton, up 0.27% compared with the previous trading day, and decreased by 33.93% year-on-year. PTA main futures (2101) closed up and closed at 3380, up 26% or 0.78% from the previous trading day. Upstream crude oil stopped falling, and Yangzi Petrochemical PTA unit was overhauled, thus delaying the market atmosphere of fear of falling.
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Recent changes of domestic PTA unit: 10000 tons / year
Production enterprise total capacity maintenance capacity maintenance plan
Yangzi Petrochemical 100 35 plans to start maintenance in the afternoon of November 3, and the restart time is to be determined.
Yizheng Chemical Fiber 100 65 will be overhauled on October 12, 2020, and it will start to warm up and restart in the afternoon of October 30. At present, it is running normally.
Yadong Petrochemical 70 70 plans to overhaul from November 13 to November 28, 2020.
In the evening of September 29, 2020, Hanbang Petrochemical Company began to reduce the load and shut down. The material was discharged in the early morning of October 29, and it started operation on October 30, basically full load.
60. From May 9, 2020, it will be shut down for maintenance and restart to be determined.
Chuanneng chemical 100 100 plans to start maintenance for 14 days on October 15, 2020.
Yisheng Dalian 600 375 will reduce the load to 50% on October 26, 2020, and start maintenance for 2 weeks on November 1.
Hengli Dalian 1160 220 will start maintenance on October 18, 2020 and restart on October 31, 2020. At present, it is running at full load basically.
Jialong petrochemical company shut down for maintenance on August 2, 2019, and the restart time is to be determined.
Pengwei Petrochemical 90 90 will be shut down for maintenance on March 9, 2020, and the restart is to be determined.
Tianjin Petrochemical Company shut down for maintenance on April 17, 2020, and restart to be determined.
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With the 2.2 million tons of Hanbang petrochemical, 650000 tons of Yizheng Chemical fiber, and 2.2 million tons of Hengli petrochemical, the operating rate of the market has reached more than 86%. In addition, another 1.1 million tons of PTA new production capacity of Dushan energy phase II will be put into operation, and the supply side pressurization still exists. Today, Yangzi Petrochemical announced that the 350000 ton unit planned to start maintenance, which can relieve the pressure of PTA supply to a certain extent.
Crude oil prices rebounded slightly on November 2, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $36.81/barrel. The demand for heating in winter has led to a further increase in crude oil demand. Meanwhile, OPEC + alliance is considering delaying the planned increase in supply in January, which has played a positive role in the rise of crude oil price.
However, compared with October, the downstream polyester market began to return to rationality in November, and the market wait-and-see sentiment increased. Both textile enterprises, textile mills and traders were basically cautious, with polyester operating load around 86%. In terms of price, the price of polyester filament factory is stable temporarily, and the mainstream polyester POY (150D / 48F) in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is quoted at 5200-5500 yuan / ton. In terms of starting rate, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 93%. As of November 3, the starting rate of water jet and air-jet looms in Shengze area is about 80-90%. In terms of inventory, as of November 3, the inventory of grey fabric weaving in Shengze area was more than 40 days, and some manufacturers were difficult to make flat production and sales, and began to accumulate.
Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the international crude oil price rebounds in the short term and the cost side is favorable. But at present, PTA spot is sufficient, processing costs are high and new production capacity is about to be put into operation, and the downstream polyester demand market lacks confidence. It is expected that PTA market will continue to rebound, with insufficient power.
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