Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on October 27 was 43.07, up 1.18 points compared with yesterday, 56.93% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 57.88% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
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So far this month, natural rubber futures and spot are on the way. Shanghai Rubber: the 01 contract rose from 12600 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month to 15725 yuan / ton on the 27th. So far, it has risen by 3375 yuan / ton, up 26.78%. Spot rubber: according to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, the mainstream quotation of domestic Baodao whole milk market was about 11792.5 yuan / ton on October 1, and 14600 yuan / ton on October 27, a sharp increase of 23.81%. Among them, the highest price this month is 14600 yuan / ton on the 27th, and the lowest is 11792.5 yuan / ton during the National Day holiday, which is a typical rising trend along the way.
New rubber output: Southeast Asia: affected by frequent rainfall weather, new rubber in Southeast Asia is blocked. Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and other major global suppliers are affected by the heavy rain, resulting in production problems. Thailand and other places continue to rain. In 2020, due to the epidemic situation, drought and other factors, the production of raw materials in rubber production areas at home and abroad will slow down and production reduction is inevitable. In recent months, Thailand and other places have been affected by rainfall. In addition, the reduction of foreign labor during the epidemic period has made Thailand’s rubber output more tense. At the same time, the demand for medical gloves has increased significantly, the demand for latex is good, and the output of cigarette rubber is reduced The price is high due to the tight supply of raw materials. Not only the price of natural rubber has been increased last month, but also the supply of goods in this month is short and the price continues to rise. Among them, India’s rubber production is expected to be good due to good rainfall, and due to the rapid growth of China’s demand, as of the 25th, the price of rss4 grade rubber in Indian market rose to 149 rupees per kilogram, and the quotation of RSS3 grade cigarette rubber at parity with rss4 rubber was 242.1 US dollars (17850 Rupees) per 100 kg. China: at present, the tapping work in China’s domestic area is normal, but it is learned that the new rubber is only digested in the factory after it is produced, and the new tapping volume is not enough to support the market circulation, and the supply side is still tight; although the market demand for domestic rubber is not as urgent as that when the previous index glue is not opened, and the price of rubber imported from abroad is low, so the domestic market relies heavily on overseas rubber The influence factor of this situation is the shortage of domestic rubber. Traders have to turn to foreign rubber, and Xishuangbanna is more dependent on cloud elephant emulsion in Laos and other places. It is reported that the rubber tapping in Hainan is still affected by the weather, the output is small, supporting the price upward. Some data show that by the end of September 2020, the cumulative rubber production will be 426500 tons, 102800 tons less than the same period in 2019, and 99100 tons less than that in 2018.
Import and export: in terms of China’s situation, in August 2020, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 699000 tons, an increase of 30% over the same period last year; from January to August, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 4.508 million tons, an increase of 8.2% compared with 4.166 million tons in the same period of 2019. Thailand: in September 2020, Thailand exported 2017300 tons of rubber, a decrease of 8.2% compared with the same period last year, worth US $250 million, a decrease of 12.2%. A total of 1895328 tons of rubber were exported in nine months, with a value of 2.368 billion US dollars.
In terms of inventory: as of October 23, 2020, the natural rubber inventory of the Institute was 243925 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 221520 tons, which decreased by 2165 tons and increased by 9490 tons; the inventory of rubber No.20 was 39565 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 35331 tons, increasing 273 tons and decreasing 333 tons respectively; the natural rubber futures inventory decreased in the previous period, while the warehouse receipt inventory increased significantly, while the 20 rubber inventory increased while the warehouse receipt decreased.
Downstream demand: first of all, the operating rate of tire manufacturers continued to rise. On the basis of the increase in September, the operating rate of downstream enterprises continued to rise compared with the month on month. According to the data, as of October 23, 2020, the start-up load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 75.32%, a slight increase of 0.63 percentage points compared with last week and a rise of 9.92 percentage points over the same period of last year. The operating load of semi steel tire of domestic tire enterprises was 70.81%, 0.6% higher than last week and 3.36% higher than that of the same period last year. The export of heavy truck tires and the supporting high bearing show that the overall operation situation of tire manufacturers continues to improve. Secondly, tire sales continued to improve. According to customs data, in September, China’s tire export volume maintained a double growth on the same month; in September, China’s rubber tire export volume was 650000 tons, with a month on month increase of 20000 tons, a significant increase of 16.7% year-on-year. In the same month, the export volume of rubber tires was 9.811 billion yuan, up 7.6% year on year. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 630000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 16.6%; the export volume was 9.352 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. In September, the number of new pneumatic rubber tires exported was 47.88 million, with a month on month increase of 1.54 million, and a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. The data showed that the consumption of downstream tires increased sharply and the conditions for price upward were sufficient. Thirdly, car sales are in good condition. In September, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.524 million and 2.655 million, respectively, up 14.1% and 12.9% year-on-year. Affected by the growth of automobile sales, the production of rubber tire increased greatly. On October 19, the National Bureau of statistics released economic data for the first three quarters. With the gradual recovery of the domestic economy, the production and sales of automobiles in China increased by 19.1% and 17.4% respectively in September, with a year-on-year increase of 14.1% and 12.8%, respectively. Among them, the production and sales volume of commercial vehicles were 479000 and 477000 respectively, with a sharp increase of 39.0% and 40.3% year-on-year. Automobile production and sales recovered strongly, and the domestic tire market maintained a good development momentum. Fourth, tire prices have risen. The prices of natural rubber, carbon black, steel cord and other raw materials of tire were raised in the third quarter due to the upward trend of natural rubber price. After entering the fourth quarter, the price of natural rubber went up all the way in this month, the cost of tire manufacturers continued to increase, and the price rise tide of tire enterprises was set off again. As of October 22, outlets tire, Wanli tire, Aeolus tire and other enterprises have announced that they will start to increase product prices in October and November, with the increase range from 2% to 4%.
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Hot spots of this month:
Thailand: on October 21, Nakorn tangavirapat, head of the rubber Bureau of Thailand (raot), said on Wednesday that the price of rubber is expected to rise to THB 67 per kilogram soon as China’s demand increases, while rubber supply falls due to frequent rainfall in the South and labor shortage during the outbreak. Nakorn believes that the government’s policy of supporting loans to rubber growers will help them hire more workers to improve harvesting capacity and rubber production. The project was implemented in May this year and will end in April 2022 with a budget of 20 billion baht. These loans should ultimately help stabilize the rubber market price.
Thailand reported on October 26 that Thailand’s export of latex gloves increased by 154.9% in September 2020, and 61.4% from January to September this year. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is not yet fully improved, and some markets are not confident of importing latex gloves from China. Orders for latex gloves from Thailand are scheduled for 2021. It is estimated that the rubber price will exceed 70 baht / kg in November. In addition to the above factors, the business matching work jointly carried out by the rubber administration of Thailand, the Ministry of Commerce and the private sector has led to 69 pairs of trade cooperation, and the global economy has begun to recover, which is also the reason for the substantial growth of Thailand’s latex glove export. But at the same time, there are also some negative factors that need to be paid attention to. For example, the high price of rubber may lead to the suspension of buying in the rubber futures market, which will have an impact on the rubber price and affect the income of rubber farmers. Therefore, the Thai rubber authority should take measures in advance, such as purchasing rubber from 108 markets subordinate to the rubber authority, and keeping glue for rubber farmers to slow down the entry of glue into the market Decide which measure to take according to the market situation.
India: India reported on October 26 that as of October 25, the price of rss4 grade rubber in the Indian market rose to 149 rupees per kilogram, and the price of RSS3 grade cigarette rubber was US $242.1 (17850 Rupees) per 100kg, due to the growing demand of China and supply problems faced by major rubber producing countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia. N Radhakrishnan, former president of India’s Cochin rubber Traders Association, said the rise in Indian rubber prices had nothing to do with its domestic progress. Rajiv buddhraja, President of the automobile tire manufacturers association (Atma), said China’s purchases in the global market had risen sharply, pushing up global prices.
U.S.: the U.S. Department of Commerce has agreed to postpone the publication date of the preliminary findings to determine whether passenger / light truck tires sold in the U.S. are sold at less than fair prices to December 29, AP reported. At the request of the United Steelworkers union (USW), the petitioner in the case, the Commerce Department agreed to extend the deadline by 50 days. USW said that due to the “complexity” of collecting the required information, the Ministry of Commerce was unable to collect “complete responses and sufficient information” by the original deadline of November 9. By agreeing to postpone the deadline for publication of the preliminary ruling, the Ministry of Commerce has automatically postponed the date of the final ruling by the same number of days, from late January to mid March.
Europe: the European Union’s passenger car market grew for the first time in 2020 in September, according to data released by the European Association of automobile manufacturers on the 16th. In September, the number of new car registrations across the EU increased by 3.1% year-on-year to 933987. Despite the positive results of car sales in September, the impact of the epidemic still has a significant impact on the European car market, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association. Among the major markets, the number of new car registrations in Spain, Italy, France and Germany decreased by 38.3%, 34.2%, 28.9% and 25.5% respectively in the first nine months.
ANRPC: according to the association of natural rubber producers (ANRPC), the total output of natural rubber from January to September totaled 7797.1 thousand tons, down 7.3% year-on-year. Among them, in September 2020, China’s natural rubber production was about 111.4 kilotons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% and a month on month increase of 11.4%; from January to September, the total production of natural rubber accumulated 426.5 thousand tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 19.4%. Meanwhile, the cumulative production of natural rubber in Thailand decreased by 2.04%, Indonesia by 13.18%, Malaysia by 11.54%, Vietnam by 5.06% and India by 3.31%.
About the aftermarket: in China, the demand for rubber has increased rapidly, and the rubber price of Southeast Asian rubber producing countries has risen recently. The main influencing factor is China’s demand factor. In the global natural rubber due to weather, epidemic situation and other factors, production reduction is not only inevitable, but also the situation may be grim because of the weather. The natural rubber market is characterized by a rebound in downstream demand, a large increase in export volume, and a slow output of new rubber. In the current “golden nine silver ten” traditional consumption peak season, the natural rubber market has obvious upward support, rapid growth and large increase. According to the current market analysis, after the proper adjustment of natural rubber, there is still a possibility of rising; considering the recent favorable fundamentals of natural rubber raw materials and downstream demand, as well as the epidemic situation, international political situation and other possible negative factors, we think that natural rubber is likely to rise, but at present, there are few spot rubber transactions in the market, there is no market price, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and downstream procurement is sincere Careful, weak support.
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