1、 Price trend
According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic toluene market continued to decline slightly this week. As of Friday, the average price in the domestic market was about 3380 yuan / ton, down 0.88% month on month.
2、 Analysis and comment
Toluene prices fell slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in South China will lower the listed price of toluene by about 50 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is still high, and the pressure to go to the warehouse still exists. The market is oversupply, the downstream blended oil and solvent demand is general, the price is slightly weak, and there has been a slight fluctuation in recent years, and there is no improvement. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3350 yuan / ton. The future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development of new crown vaccine, the impact of economic restart and recovery on crude oil demand, the global economic recovery and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.
Upstream, crude oil, the recent crude oil market volatility is weak, this week international crude oil prices fell. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $0.415/barrel to close at $41.235/barrel, down 1% from last week. Analysts and traders are bearish on the outlook for crude oil next week, according to fx168′s weekly financial market survey released on Saturday (October 24). In addition, the world bank said in its latest half year commodity market outlook report that although energy prices have rebounded, they are expected to stabilize below the pre epidemic level. The average price of crude oil in 2021 is US $44 per barrel, higher than US $41 per barrel in 2020.
Downstream, TDI continued a small decline trend this week, with the implementation of 16500 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 17000 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be shaken, and the downstream follow-up will be insufficient. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week was about 4450 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk was about 533 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 551 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will maintain a small fluctuation trend.
3、 Future forecast
According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the second outbreak of global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will remain weak and stable next week.
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