1、 Price trend
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According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of power coal has dropped slightly. On October 20, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at 620 yuan / ton. On October 1, the average price of steam coal was 611.25 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.43%, a decrease of 0.2% compared with the average price of 621.25 yuan / ton on October 18, and the price was 7.3% higher than that of last year.
On October 19, the commodity index of steam coal was 74.76, down 0.09 points compared with yesterday, 27.42% lower than 103.01 points (2011-11-15), and 67.25% higher than 44.70 points, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In terms of production area, Shanxi Province has recently suffered a coal accident, and the safety inspection may be strengthened, but the mine inventory is relatively sufficient, and the coal price is expected to fluctuate little. The release of coal production in the main producing areas has been accelerated, and the supply has gradually increased. At present, the production of some advanced large mines in some areas of the main production area has been gradually released, and it is expected that the coal mine area with increased production and guaranteed supply will continue to expand in the future.
Downstream power plants: entering the fourth quarter, the demand for electric coal is strong in winter peak season, and the inventory decreases rapidly. The centralized procurement of power plants leads to the rapid rise of coal price. However, the cumulative stock of Beigang is weak, and the inventory of main ports has dropped to below 19 million tons again, but it is still at a high level. The port coal price has been slightly adjusted, the seller’s willingness to ship goods has increased, and the transaction is rare. The mainstream closing price of 5500 kcal steam coal is about 615-620 yuan / ton.
In September, the production of raw coal was 330 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, an increase of 0.8% over the previous month; the average daily output was 11.04 million tons, with an increase of 530000 tons on a month on month basis. From January to September, it produced 2.79 billion tons of raw coal, down 0.1% year on year. In September, a small number of coal mines were shut down due to factors such as over production in main production areas, safety production, coal management tickets, etc., and the output of raw coal decreased year on year. In the northern heating season winter storage and import coal decreased year on year, domestic supply shrank.
Business agency analysts believe that: the domestic power plant inventory is at a high level, the demand for winter storage and replenishment of key power plants exists, and the inventory continues to rise. The power plant has a large inventory, but the winter heating season is coming, and the power plant still needs to replenish the thermal coal. It is predicted that the short-term steam coal price will still be mainly in the range of integrated operation, which depends on the downstream market demand.
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