1、 Price trend
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According to the data of business agency, on October 15, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 2900 yuan / ton, up 10.27% compared with that before the festival (8 days), 23.23% month on month, and 22.67% lower than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Since the return of the double festival, the domestic LNG market continued to rise, and the strong market continued to this week, with a 7-day continuous rise of 10.27%, with a strong upward momentum. Since April 15, northern cities have entered the winter heating period, regional urban fuel storage has been opened, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang and other places have been fully opened up, the price has been increased by 100-250 yuan / ton, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the price of the terminal has also increased by about 50-200 yuan / ton. Domestic gas and air intake have risen hand in hand to meet the arrival of the traditional peak season.
On October 10, the benchmark price of feed gas in Northwest China was raised to 1.28 yuan / m3, and the increase in cost boosted the market atmosphere. At present, the on-site supply is relatively abundant, the start-up of the liquid plant is stable, a few enterprises have maintenance plans, and the overall operating rate is slightly increased. The downstream demand improved, the city fuel replenishment was positive, the vehicle demand increased, the gas station sales were good, the industrial demand was improved, the demand side was strong, the business attitude was optimistic, and the driving mood was not reduced.
According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 15, the average price in Inner Mongolia is around 2910 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; in Shaanxi, the average price is around 2880 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Shanxi, the average price is around 2970 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Xinjiang, the average price is around 3270 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Ningxia, the average price is around 2980 yuan / ton, the price is rising, and the average price in Sichuan is 2660 yuan Around yuan / ton, the price is temporarily stable, and the prices of many places are rising as a whole.
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Enterprise capacity rose and fell from October 15 to October 9
Inner Mongolia Shitai: 550000 cubic meters / day: 2900 yuan / ton: 2650 yuan / ton: 250 yuan
Star Energy: 1 million cubic meters / day 2860 yuan / ton 2770 yuan / ton 90 yuan
Inner Mongolia Sentai: 1.2 million cubic meters / day: 2920 yuan / ton: 2650 yuan / ton: 270 yuan
Zhongyuan green energy: 3 million cubic meters / day, 2940 yuan / ton, 2700 yuan / ton, 240 yuan
Shengdazizhou: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2900 yuan / ton: 2810 yuan / ton: 90
Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2580 yuan / ton: 2580 yuan / ton
Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 3000 yuan / ton 2780 yuan / ton 220 yuan
Qinshui Xinao — 2950 yuan / ton 2700 yuan / ton 250 yuan
Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million cubic meters / day 2750 yuan / ton 2500 yuan / ton 250 yuan
Most downstream products show an upward trend
Methanol, domestic methanol market rose, some manufacturers continued to increase the ex factory quotation, in which Shandong, Anhui and Fujian regions showed a significant rise. The main factors of this price rise are the favorable futures, the maintenance of equipment in some regions, the low inventory, and the favorable influence of the recovery of downstream demand. In the short term, the positive factors will still remain for a period of time, traders are full of bullish mentality. The methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.
Urea and upstream liquid ammonia have been consolidated at a high level recently, with good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply. 9 daily offer: 1660-1700 yuan / ton
The market price of dichloromethane and methane chloride in Shandong Province is temporarily stable. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 2720-2750 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of chloroform market is about 1850 yuan / ton. At present, the market is mainly adjusted by fluctuation. The trading situation of the industry is acceptable. The spot supply of the market is stable. The upstream liquid chlorine market is high, which supports the price of methane chloride. The downstream market is overall purchased The demand is flat and the market support is general.
Ethylene, current crude oil: driven by the favorable stock market, the implementation rate of OPEC production reduction is commendable, and compensation production reduction is still implemented to lock in the rise of oil price. Driven by cost support, so business agency data analysts expect that ethylene external price will rise next.
3、 Future forecast
Liquefied natural gas analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the overall market mentality is good, the peak season is coming, the market demand is increasing, combined with the cost rise and other positive factors, it is expected that the liquid price will continue to rise in the short term.
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