1、 Price trend
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On September 30, the domestic LNG price still showed an upward trend. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG on September 30 was 2630 yuan / ton, up 1.02% compared with the previous day, 9.28% higher than the beginning of the month, 7.93% month on month, and 5.85% lower than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
On September 30, domestic LNG prices rose and kept climbing, without any correction. Today, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Xinjiang and other places have high enthusiasm for price adjustment, rising about 20-100 yuan / ton. Prices in other regions are relatively stable, and there is little change in the terminal. With the advent of the double festival, all provinces in the country have successively issued travel restriction notices for high-speed dangerous goods vehicles. During the holidays, dangerous chemical vehicles are forbidden to drive into expressways, and the logistics is limited. The downstream replenishment before the festival is more active, the liquid factory shipment is good, and the market trading atmosphere is active. The off-season is coming to an end. With the coming of the heating season, the demand for urban fuel in the lower reaches has gradually increased. The manufacturers have increased the shipment volume, and the liquid level is generally not high. Moreover, some manufacturers have maintenance conditions. In addition, the price of imported gas has risen recently, which has been boosted by various favorable factors. The overall LNG market has shown a large area of continuous rise. Due to the low liquid level of some liquid plants in the early stage and the heating season The price will push up strongly and the trend is more clear.
According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of September 30, the average price in Inner Mongolia is around 2610 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; in Shaanxi, the average price is around 2610 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; in Shanxi, the average price is around 2660 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Xinjiang, the average price is around 2750 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Ningxia, the average price is about 2670 yuan / ton, the price is rising, and the liquid price is rising.
Enterprise capacity rose and fell from September 30 to September 29
Inner Mongolia Shitai: 550000 cubic meters / day: 2580 yuan / ton: 2580 yuan / ton
Star Energy: 1 million cubic meters / day 2660 yuan / ton 2580 yuan / ton
Inner Mongolia Sentai: 1.2 million cubic meters / day: 2580 yuan / ton: 2580 yuan / ton
Zhongyuan green energy: 3 million cubic meters / day: 2650 yuan / ton: 2650 yuan / ton
Shengdazizhou: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2720 yuan / ton: 2620 yuan / ton: 100
Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2580 yuan / ton: 2580 yuan / ton
Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2700 yuan / ton 2650 yuan / ton 50 yuan
Qinshui Xinao — 2650 yuan / ton 2650 yuan / ton
Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million cubic meters / day 2400 yuan / ton 2300 yuan / ton 100 yuan
Downstream products also increased to varying degrees:
For methanol, the reference price of Shandong methanol in Lubei market was 1640-1650 yuan / ton on the 29th, which was delivered to spot exchange. The quotation of methanol market in southern Shandong Province rose by 20 yuan / ton to 1800 yuan / ton, and Linyi received the local goods quotation of 1780-1800 yuan / ton and delivered them without tax. There were not many offers for logistics goods, and some downstream replenishment basically ended. The inventory of upstream enterprises was not high and their mentality was supported.
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For liquid ammonia, in the whole month, the liquid ammonia maintains narrow range adjustment, and the supply and demand fundamentals are balanced. It is expected that the domestic ammonia volume will remain moderate before the double festival. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will still maintain the range consolidation in the near future. It is not ruled out that the trend of various regions after the festival or some differentiation will occur. The market is mainly affected by large plants, and it is possible that the devices in Shandong will still be overhauled in the future In addition, the market may need to consume a part of pre holiday stock after the superposition of festivals, and the price may be impacted to a certain extent. On the demand side, the downstream demand is rigid and stable. At present, the downstream fertilizer market is at the end of the autumn fertilizer production and sales season. The downstream demand may shrink in the later stage, and the downstream operating rate is expected to gradually decrease in the later stage. Considering comprehensively, liquid ammonia may be near strong and far weak.
Urea and upstream liquid ammonia have been consolidated at a high level recently, with good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply. Near the national day, the market trading atmosphere weakened, manufacturers reduced prices to absorb orders, short-term urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly.
Dichloromethane, at present, the domestic dichloromethane market tends to be stable, and the manufacturers have a good attitude of supporting price without pressure in inventory. With the arrival of the National Day holiday, the Limited Logistics and transportation situation will lead to the weak trading in the industry. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will be stable and strong in a short period of time.
3、 Future forecast
Liquefied natural gas analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the manufacturers’ shipment is smooth, the overall market mentality is good, and the heating is coming, the market demand has increased, and the overall market has been pushed up. Due to poor traffic during the holidays, downstream demand may decrease. It is expected that domestic LNG prices will mainly be consolidation and fluctuate slightly.
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