1、 Price trend
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According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose step by step in this month. It rose significantly at the beginning of the month and then stabilized. The shock slightly decreased. In the middle of the month, it rose rapidly again. In the second half of the month, the price was generally stable and rose slightly at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price was the monthly low price, 6989 yuan / ton; at the end of the month, it was the monthly high price, 7503 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 7.35%.
2、 Analysis and comment
According to the price chart of the business agency, since September 1, the price of propylene has been rising all the way, and the upward range is getting bigger and bigger. Up to the fourth day, the total price rose by 300 yuan / ton. From the seventh to the tenth, the first round of downward adjustment occurred, with a total reduction of 100-150 yuan / ton. After that, it was slightly stable. From the 13th, the price went up again, up 350 yuan / ton on the 17th. On the 17th, the price remained stable, and the price decreased slightly on weekends On the 21st, some enterprises went down by 50-100 yuan / ton. From Monday 21, the prices were generally stable. On the 24th, the prices of individual enterprises began to decline slightly, and on the 25th, they rose slightly. After several days of stabilization, the prices generally rose slightly on the 29th, and the prices were stable on the 30th of the end of the month. The market transaction is now between 7450 and 7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7480 yuan / ton. Most propylene manufacturers have no pressure on inventory.
On September 29, crude oil prices fell, slightly negative impact on propylene market.
In the first half of the month, the spot price of PP went up and then fell down, and the whole line remained stable in the second half of the month. The futures market declined slightly, which may have a negative impact on propylene.
Acrylic acid market rose steadily this month, with a monthly increase of 29.18%, which had a positive impact on propylene.
Propylene oxide market also rose steadily this month, with a monthly increase of 37.56%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.
The price of epichlorohydrin rose step by step in the first half of the month, then declined slightly in the second half of the month and then stabilized, with a monthly increase of 9.32% and a monthly amplitude of 12.54%, which had little impact on the future market of propylene.
The domestic price of n-butanol rose steadily in the first ten days of this month and stabilized in the last ten days, with a monthly increase of 11.11%.
Octanol market rose steadily in the first half of the month, and remained stable in the second half. It rose slightly at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 7.47%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.
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This month, isopropanol market fell back and remained stable after rising, with a monthly decline of only 0.83% and a monthly amplitude of 7.75%, which had no significant impact on propylene.
Phenol in East China declined step by step in the first ten days of this month, remained stable in the middle of the month, and then stabilized after rising in the last ten days, with a monthly decrease of 1.81% and a monthly amplitude of 4.07%.
The price of East China acetone fell steadily after rising this month, with a monthly increase of 5.12% and a monthly amplitude of 18.50%, which had a limited impact on propylene.
3、 Future forecast
The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: in a comprehensive view, the current propylene manufacturers have a small inventory, and the crude oil price is declining, but the downstream products are profitable, the operating rate is high, and there is a demand for replenishment before the festival, which has a certain support for propylene. The overall positive factors are more than the negative factors. Now the propylene price is at the top position, and the upward trend is difficult. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price may go during the national day Stability is the key.
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