Influence of metallurgical sulfuric acid on the market
According to incomplete statistics , by the end of 2013, the above-scale enterprises 464 sulfuric acid production , preliminary verification , production capacity of about 113 million tons of sulfuric acid . “Twelve Five” period, smelting acid production capacity will increase more than 13 million tons , production capacity will be focused to play emerged in the years 2014, 2015 . With the growth of the national economy , with an acid fertilizer industry than increased demand for fertilizer is still the largest user of sulfuric acid. Fertilizer consumption in 2013 accounted for 62.6% of the total sulfuric acid consumption, total fertilizer consumption accounted for 57.4% sulfuric acid , high concentrations of phosphate and compound fertilizer fertilizer consumption accounted for 83.5% of the amount of acid .
The current market is facing a shortage of sulfate sulfur resources , in 2013 about 5.26 million tons of sulfur domestic and imported 10.55 million tons , sulfur self-sufficiency rate is only 33.3% ; significant fluctuations in the price of sulfur acid and downstream industries to bring a lot of business risks ; approximately 55% of the non-ferrous metal ore imported ; imported 1.16 million tons of sulfuric acid ; 2013 our dependence on foreign resources sulfur still as high as 49 %.
With the development of non-ferrous metal industry during the second five , a number of medium-sized non-ferrous metallurgical acid plant put into operation , together with the supporting device of chemical fertilizers , to 2015 , China’s production capacity will reach 120 million tons of sulfuric acid , excess capacity will exceed 30% . Sulfuric acid market is facing a long-term oversupply situation.
Changes in the pattern of sulfuric acid and marketing suggestions respond to the current situation : from industrial policies say: should make full use of non-ferrous metal smelting by-product sulfuric acid and sulfur associated resources ( non-ferrous mineral byproduct sulfur fine sand ) . Flue acid itself is recycling products , in line with “resource -saving and environment-friendly” strategy of sustainable development , while reducing our dependence on foreign resources, sulfur , both conducive to the development of China’s nonferrous metals industry , and reducing waste pollution , is conducive to the healthy development of sulfuric acid industry.
From corporate marketing perspective, encourage large smelting enterprises and fertilizer , chemical industry combination, establish long-term strategic partnership , improve regional cooperation , which is to ensure the smooth production of non-ferrous metal main industry , but also the stability of sulfuric acid market . Mismatch large smelting acid base compound fertilizer enterprises and the industrial layout , it is possible to promote the transformation and development of sulfuric acid transport .
Yuntianhua International Chemical Co., Ltd. Market Information Minister Zhou Qingyi
Phosphate trade competition or low international fertilizer prices
From the second half of 2013, international fertilizer prices continued to fall , turning point came in December , after the international prices began to bounce back . February 12 this year the U.S. Port of Tampa DAP FOB prices have reached $ 480 . Round fertilizer prices in the international market , mainly due to North America, South America and Europe, strong demand pull. But sustained remains to be seen , because the South Asian demand has not started, when to start ? Start the strength of the case ? Remains to be seen .
Domestic , nearly a decade of China’s three basic fertilizer production and the first decline , decline is a direct factor monoammonium sharply cut, cut a rate of 12.2%. This indicates that China is not a formal restructuring phosphate arrival ? We forecast to accelerate productivity trend will become more pronounced. China is in the country during the spring to prepare fertilizer , by rising costs and international market for the better , the domestic fertilizer market began to recover , prices began to rise, but due to several varieties of fertilizer supply is much greater than domestic demand , domestic and international phosphate fertilizer recovery far market , restricted their small environment.
Chinese export prices of DAP and international markets simultaneously , the downward phase synchronization is maintained and international markets , but in the rising process , due to their small environmental impact , not kept synchronized movements and international markets .
Due to the serious domestic demand for more than the international market price on the domestic impact of the formation of an asymmetric relationship , if the international market prices are low, then the domestic market prices will slump if the international market prices move up , the domestic market price did not change significantly .
As domestic agricultural policies to further deepen the long term, the domestic fertilizer demand is also facing further reduce domestic supply and demand ratio will further deteriorate if the international fertilizer market prices continued rising, the domestic enterprises to expand exports will achieve better returns, our International trade accounts for the ratio of phosphorus to further enhance the easy form of price competition , does not preclude the international fertilizer market prices will soon be pulled down Chinese exports. Therefore, the current international fertilizer market price trends cautiously optimistic.
General Manager of Beijing Song Kun Zarlink shipping company
The international shipping market is expected to enter healthy development stage
From the short-cycle perspective, has shown a steady upward trend throughout the year . In the first half of 2013 , BDI index hovering in the low overall , continuing sluggish trend in 2012 , entering the second half of the imports of seaborne iron ore demand in China , driven by rapidly pulled the BDI . BDI index reached 2146 October 8 points , the highest level since November 2011 . As of December 25, 2013 , BDI closed at 2277 points .
Large vessels tariffs rise faster . 2013 October capesize market trends showing a sharp upward trend , rather than taking it down at the beginning of 2013 after four quarters of the third quarter, climbing higher and higher . In the end of November , the market has rebounded sharply freight market volatility . Panamax market lows hovering late Capesize driven by steady growth , with the arrival of the cold winter , seaborne coal demand will effectively support the Panamanian ship freight . Handymax steady growth in the overall performance of the market trend , market volatility minimum .
From the analysis of the situation , we can see a new trend of the future development of international shipping . New shipbuilding orders fell significantly , especially in the long-term 2011-2013 shipping market downturn led to a significant decline in new shipbuilding orders. World seaborne trade increased steadily , especially in the late 2013 early 2014 , growth in world seaborne trade for the first time since 2008 , following more than a net capacity growth. Growth in world seaborne trade imbalance , leading to significantly increased demand for shipping capacity . A large number of ship operators using economic speed vessels , potentially reducing net capacity supply ship . With the increase in world seaborne trade , ports growing pressure port , the ship will also result in a net reduction of capacity supply. During the 2013-2016 shipping market rebound gradually bottoming process, the seasonal factors will be the main factors leading to the sharp rise in the market decline . 2017 is expected to usher in a sharp rise in the shipping market will stage another long absence , world seaborne trade growth will reach a peak in 2018 .
China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association Information Department deputy Renwang Ying
Phosphate fertilizer industry entered an adjustment phase
2014 , the domestic fertilizer supply surplus situation will persist , by the end of 2013 carryover effect of the increase , especially DAP product , 2014 spring market competition will become more intense. 2013 Enterprise operating losses in 2014 corporate cash flow will be more difficult, most difficult business to run . Despite entering after 2014 , domestic fertilizer market has shown signs of recovery , but the impact of supply and demand exacerbated by the limited space fertilizer prices .
2014 World sulfur production will continue to increase , it will reach 60 million tons , maintaining a tight balance of resources to continue to increase the supply of sulfur : smelter acid production continued to grow to a larger production of replacement acid , sulfuric acid prices will run low , with the oil recovery projects in Sichuan sulfur production , increase the domestic supply of sulfur .
China’s export tariffs loose , especially the larger off-season tariffs decline , increasing the likelihood of export enterprises . IFA predicts that in 2014 the world fertilizer demand 41.8 million tons P2O5, only a slight rebound , the Indian government announced a fertilizer subsidy program budget 2014-2015 , the amount of compound fertilizer and other subsidies on fertilizers decreased by 16.2% , thereby limiting the growth in demand , Saudi Arabia, Morocco and other countries in the growth of phosphate fertilizer production , fertilizer is still in the world oversupply situation.
China since 2005 to promote soil testing and fertilizer , fertilizer formulations growing area , slow-release fertilizer , various efficiency of fertilizers, manure and other special features of the new fertilizer is gradually being recognized and accepted by farmers, which have reduced the traditional fertilizer needs.
2013 phosphatic compound fertilizer industry into the most difficult year , overcapacity exacerbated by weak export prices , production and operation difficulties. The overall economic development of China has entered the shift period, a period of adjustment and digestion period . Phosphate fertilizer industry has entered an adjustment phase , although the price may fluctuate , but the overall market downturn , the overall decline in industry profit margins , market competition is more intense.
China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association, Liao Kang Cheng
Situation and Prospects of China’s sulfuric acid industry
2013 was 86.47 million tons of sulfuric acid production , an increase of 2.9% ; average annual increase of 8.1% since 2005 . Its sulfuric acid raw material structure: sulfuric acid 39.74 million tons , up by 1.8% ; 46.0% of total production ; smelter acid 24.7 million tons , up by 3.5% ; 28.6% ; mineral acid 21.28 million tons , up increase of 3.2% ; 24.9% .
Sulfate compound fertilizer industry layout focused on the origin and industrialized areas ; production of sulfuric acid produced four provinces accounted for 42% of phosphorus , sulfuric acid production accounted for 28% of East China , South China and 17% in Chongqing , the three northern regions accounted for 13 %. Sulfuric acid is mainly concentrated in the Southwest and East China: producing sulfuric acid phosphate four provinces accounted for 66% of the total amount of sulfuric acid ; East China accounted for 22% ; these two regions accounted for 88% of the total amount of sulfuric acid . Guangdong , Hubei and Anhui provinces total output of 7.42 million tons mineral acid , accounting for 35% of the mineral acid production; producing phosphorus mineral acid production in four provinces accounted for 25 %.
2013 China imported 1.16 million tons of sulfuric acid , an increase of 10.5% ; which imported from South Korea accounted for 82% sulfuric acid , sulfuric acid imported from Japan , 16% sulfuric acid 10,000 tons exported in 2013 , down 87.7% . 2013 apparent consumption of 87.6 million tons of sulfuric acid , an increase of 3.1%. In 2013 sulfuric acid consumption structure, with an acid fertilizer accounted for 63% , flat with last year ; industrial acid accounted for 37 %. With an acid fertilizer , phosphate acid 92% , accounting for 57 % of total sulfuric acid consumption.
However, the country is still a shortage of sulfur resources : in 2013 about 5.26 million tons of sulfur domestic and imported 10.55 million tons , sulfur self-sufficiency rate of 33 %, up one percentage point ; non-ferrous metal ore about 55% dependent on imports ; imported 1.16 million tons of sulfuric acid ; 2013 China’s dependence on foreign resources sulfur was 49 %, down one percentage point from last year.
2013 Chinese sulfur production is about 5.26 million tons , an increase of 1.2% ; Sinopec sulfur production accounts for 82% of the domestic production of sulfur , oil accounted for 7% ; China sulfur self-sufficiency rate of 33 %, up one percentage point over last year ; 2013 imported sulfur 10,550,000 tons , down 5.8% , China imported sulfur mainly from West Asia, the former Soviet Union , East Asia and North America , which accounted for 48% of imports from the West .(chemicals supply)
