According to the data of the business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market on September 24 was 14276.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.95% compared with the average market price of 14710 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (September 1), 1.90% lower than the valley value of the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1) 14553.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 27.05%.
| ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate) |
In September, the price of aluminum ingots first fell and then rose. In the recent two days, the price of aluminum ingots has fallen continuously, breaking through the earlier shock range (the range is 14500-14800 yuan / ton), and the horizontal trend shows a slight break.
Supply and demand in September
1. Social inventory continued to move down to support aluminum prices
Social inventory: in September, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to move down, about 20000 tons lower than 755000 tons at the end of August. According to statistical data, the domestic electrolytic aluminum spot inventory on September 21 was 735000 tons, which was 5000 tons lower than that of the previous week, which was 74 tons on September 17. Compared with August 28, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) totaled 755000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons.
2. New and resumed production capacity is expected to increase at the supply side
In terms of production capacity: with the newly added and resumed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Sichuan, Yunnan and Inner Mongolia, as of mid September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China has increased to 37.75 million tons / year, and the completed capacity scale is 42.88 million tons / year, and the supply side will be released in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year..
| Potassium monopersulfate |
3. The price of net imported aluminum in February was under pressure
In terms of import and export: in August 2020, China’s exports of UN forged and rolled aluminum and aluminum products reached 395000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%. From January to August, the export of UN forged and rolled aluminum and aluminum products was 3.134 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%. China imported 429000 tons of aluminum in August, the highest level in more than 11 years, the second consecutive month of net aluminum imports.
Raw material alumina: 417300 tons of alumina were imported in July, and 2327200 tons were imported from January to July, an increase of 341.2% year-on-year.
Future forecast
Aluminum prices have been running sideways for a long time, and the upward breakthrough is weak, mainly based on the fact that the average profit of domestic aluminum price is still acceptable, the enthusiasm of new production and re production capacity is high, coupled with the price difference between internal and external, the original aluminum import volume increases, resulting in greater domestic supply pressure. Fortunately, the social inventory data shows that although the export market is still significantly down year-on-year, domestic consumption is good. This week, aluminum prices fell for two consecutive days, breaking through the horizontal trend in September. Ye Jianjun, an analyst at the business agency, believes that in the near future, the basic metals are greatly affected by the external price. In addition, although the consumption demand in the traditional consumption peak season in September has increased on a month on month basis, the market expectation for the surplus supply in the aftermarket has been intensified, leading to the rise of the expected demand for consumer demand, and the consumption demand is not as good as the market forecast The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be weak and stable in October, with the price range of 13500-15000 yuan / ton.
| Benzalkonium chloride |