Copper prices fell slightly this week by 0.32% (9.14-9.18)

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices fell first and then rose this week. As of the end of the week, the spot copper price was 52335 yuan / ton, down 0.32% from the beginning of the week, up 9.97% year-on-year and 6.53% higher than the beginning of the year. Recently, copper prices remain mainly narrow range fluctuations.

Fitch expects copper production in the Republic of Congo to decline by 3.5% in 2020, far below the 18% decline previously expected. The supply of major copper producing countries such as Chile is recovering, and domestic smelting capacity is gradually increasing. China’s refined copper production rose to 894000 tons in August, up 9.7% year-on-year, as smelter maintenance decreased. However, the supply of scrap copper remains tight, and the import of scrap copper is expected to drop by 50% compared with last year.

Thanks to the recovery of market demand, the recovery situation of automobile industry in August continued to be better, but the operating rate of all kinds of copper materials declined. At present, domestic copper inventory has accumulated, but consumption in peak season has not been proved. The global dominant copper inventory is at a low level. With the closing of import window, domestic inventory is expected to fall, and there is support for the bottom of copper price.

In view of the above situation, after the current market enters the peak season, the speed of de stocking is not good, but consumption has not been falsified, and it still needs time to observe the performance of demand; the supply of mine end is recovering, and the domestic refined copper production is also increasing, but the supply of scrap copper will remain tense, and the copper price is expected to remain high and volatile.