1、 Trend analysis
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On the 10th, the spot copper price was 52146.67 yuan / ton, up 0.1% from the previous day, 6.35% higher than the beginning of the year, and 11.54% higher than that of the previous day.
The fall of the US dollar and the rebound of US stocks boosted the market. Overnight, Lungshan copper closed up $49, China’s industrial production continued to improve, and TC remained low, indicating that the supply of raw materials continued to be tight, and copper prices rose slightly.
In terms of domestic demand, home appliances, automobiles and other industries are still in the stage of continuous repair, and there is still room for improvement in the demand for cables. The cable companies surveyed generally reflected that the orders in the second quarter were very good, while the orders in the third quarter turned weak, especially in August, the month on month decline was relatively obvious. According to the current order receiving situation, the enterprises generally believed that the possibility of not booming in the peak season of September and October was greater.
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In terms of foreign demand, due to the epidemic situation and trade friction, the cable export has declined significantly this year, mainly affected by Europe and the United States and other countries and regions. With the gradual control of overseas epidemic situation and the gradual effect of stimulus policies, overseas orders are expected to improve, but trade friction is still an uncertain factor.
On the supply side, Peru’s main export of copper has actually returned to pre covid-19 levels, mainly reflected in the country’s large mining companies’ power demand. “Electricity consumption by large mining companies is a very good indicator of production,” said Jaime g á lvez, Vice Minister for mining at Peru’s Ministry of energy and mines. Although electricity consumption in August decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, the electricity consumption of copper mines decreased by only 0.4%. It can be said that mining production has reached the level before the epidemic.
In view of the above situation, as the main domestic demand lies in cables and downstream investment in power grid, the peak season from September to October is not prosperous at this stage, which will limit the subsequent domestic De stocking, but there is still room for domestic copper demand such as household appliances, automobiles and electronics. With the control of epidemic situation, foreign demand is recovering, but copper supply is also gradually recovering, restraining the rising space. Short term copper prices may continue to show a broad trend of shock.
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