Price list of aluminum ingot
| povidone Iodine |
According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market on August 27 was 14740 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.80% compared with the average market price of 15010 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (August 1), 1.28% higher than the valley value of average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1) 14553.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.18% compared with the valley value of average market price in the year (March 24).
In August, the price of aluminum ingots fell first and then rose, with a range of 14400-15000 yuan / ton.
Analysis of electrolytic aluminum industry chain
1. Overview of the upstream and downstream of electrolytic aluminum industry chain
2. Rough estimation of social production cost of electrolytic aluminum
3. Price trend of electrolytic aluminum industry chain
(1) Price trend of aluminum and steam coal in 2020
(2) Price trend of aluminum and aluminum fluoride in 2020
(3) Price trend of aluminum and cryolite in 2020
(4) Price trend of aluminum and caustic soda (related to alumina production) in 2020
It can be seen from the above figure that the price of electrolytic aluminum has little correlation with the price of auxiliary materials in 2020, and the major factors affecting the price are mainly reflected in the price changes of raw alumina and the factors of supply and demand.
4. The price of raw material alumina is rising
In August, affected by the news of another reduction of alumina production in hydro alumina plant in Brazil, the market expectation of alumina price rising was strengthened. The performance of external price was obvious. The price of alumina FOB in Australia was 288 USD / T, up 23 USD / T compared with last week. Domestic alumina prices have recovered slightly at the same time. Manufacturers are generally willing to deliver goods. There are more holding companies and a strong bullish atmosphere in the overall market. The price quoted in the northern market is 2350-2400 yuan / ton, while that in the southern market is 2300-2350 yuan / ton. From the regional perspective, the transaction price of Shanxi alumina is 2360-2380 yuan / ton, Henan’s is 2360-2380 yuan / ton, Shandong’s is 2340-2380 yuan / ton, Guangxi’s is 2320-2360 yuan / ton, Guizhou’s is 2320-360 yuan / ton. The transaction price of Lianyungang alumina is 2380-2420 yuan / ton.
New alumina production capacity in August: Guangxi Huasheng New Material Co., Ltd. is expected to produce products in mid August, with a production capacity of 2 million tons / year in phase I; Jinzhong hopes that aluminum industry will implement flexible production, with a current operating capacity of 2 million tons / year.
Overview of electrolytic aluminum fundamentals in August
Social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly in August
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According to statistics, as of August 20, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) totaled 762000 tons, accumulating for five consecutive weeks, an increase of 60000 tons compared with the 702000 tons on July 23.
2. Downstream operation in August: strong demand for aluminum foil, general profile, cable and strip
In August, aluminum foil consumption peak season, the market demand is strong; the demand for electronic foil, electrode foil and brazing foil has increased steadily; air conditioning foil and double zero soft wrapping foil continue the hot market since June.
The production capacity of primary aluminum alloy was increased in August, and the operating rate was slightly increased. The downstream aluminum alloy wheel manufacturers mainly purchased on demand, but failed to increase synchronously.
Aluminum strip, aluminum profile, aluminum wire and cable started operation in August, and basically maintained stable operation; due to UHV orders of aluminum cable, the bidding volume was lower than that of the same period last year, and the future market was relatively pessimistic. In terms of aluminum plate and strip, there was a strong demand for building decorative plate strip, can cover material and pull ring material in the early stage, while the automobile plate and strip with weak demand in the early stage recovered in August.
Some aluminum industry projects to be built in August
Future forecast
At present, the price of electrolytic aluminum is stable and strong, and the future market is expected to continue to maintain.
At the raw material end, the overseas production reduction pushed up the alumina price, and the prebaked anode market remained relatively stable. At present, the profit of electrolytic aluminum industry is at a high level. Although there will be a batch of new production capacity to be put into operation this month, the electrolytic aluminum inventory has a slight recovery sign, but the current social inventory is still relatively low. The downstream is about to enter the traditional consumption peak season, and the operating rate has increased slightly, supporting the strong operation of domestic aluminum prices.
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