Price trend:
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According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the ABS market strengthened in the third week of August, and most spot prices in the market increased significantly. As of Friday, August 21, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 14250.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 6.34%, which was 10.47% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month.
Factor analysis:
As for styrene upstream of ABS, the mainstream domestic styrene price fluctuated slightly in the third week of August. As of last Friday (August 21), the average price of sample enterprises was about 5133.33 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 2.22%, and the price was 39.37% lower than that of the same period last year. In terms of inventory, the short-term oversupply situation has not changed, and the mainstream inventory is still at a high level. The arrival of styrene in port is stable, the warehouse capacity is tight, and the spot selling pressure is huge. On the cost side, crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range, ethylene fell and pure benzene was expected to decline, and styrene cost support weakened. Although the downstream demand is good at present, it is mainly supported by the mainstream downstream rigid demand. It is expected that styrene will be dominated by weak finishing in the near future. The market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.
In terms of acrylonitrile upstream of ABS, the domestic market has been stable and the domestic market has been in short supply since last month, and the improvement is still small. The main reason for the shortage of supply is that the price is at a high level, the raw materials are rising, the factory is under pressure, and the manufacturers reduce the load operation. Although the market has changed from low to positive, the downstream just needs to buy, stock operation is cautious, merchants actively ship, and the trading situation turns weak compared with the first half of the month. Acrylonitrile market supply reduction problem is still in the near future, the price may be stronger.
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The price of butadiene in domestic market was stable at the beginning of August, and the market rose obviously in the middle of August. In Asia and Europe, the external price of butadiene remained stable. Dealers have two attitudes: one is to follow the trend and the other is to keep the price unchanged and wait and see. At present, the market is generally optimistic, but the specific transaction follow-up is insufficient. Downstream synthetic rubber market quotation slightly increased, but obviously insufficient support. Business agency butadiene analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic butadiene market high volatility.
In the third week of August, domestic ABS spot supply decreased and the price rose sharply. Although the weakness of upstream styrene has depressed the market mentality to a certain extent, the overall cost support is acceptable, especially the recent high price of butadiene. At present, the operation level of ABS petrochemical plants in China is not as good as that in the early stage. In addition, extreme weather in some ports hinders the arrival of ships and cargoes. Some domestic floods have hindered the production of some polymerization plants, so that the supply situation in the near future is affected by multiple factors. ABS inventory is still at a low level, the spot circulation is tight. At present, businesses have a positive attitude, and downstream factories have turned to be positive in receiving goods. The low price in the market is active and reduced, and the atmosphere of pulling up is strong.
Future forecast:
Business agency analysts believe: the third week of August ABS market rose sharply, the prices of all brands have a certain range of adjustment. Cost side of the upstream three material recent trend is not the same, but the overall cost of ABS support is acceptable. At present, the shortage of ABS spot supply is increasing, and the downstream attitude towards the reduction of ABS supply has changed from wait-and-see to actively receive goods, and the situation of stock inquiry has increased. The resistance of the merchant to ship is reduced, and the low price order is reduced, and the real single profit making space is not large. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to rise in the near future.
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