1、 Trend analysis
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According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 17th, the spot nickel price was 114683.33 yuan / ton, up 0.6% compared with the previous trading day, 0.84% higher than the beginning of the year, and 9.56% lower than the same period last year. Shanghai nickel opened at 114380 yuan, and the price rose sharply after opening, closing at 115950 yuan, up 1.62%. LME3 nickel closed at 14575 US dollars, up 1.36%.
2、 Market analysis
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In terms of nickel ore, the port inventory was 8.08 million tons, with a rise on a month on month basis. The Philippine mine loaded 65 ships this week, keeping at a high level, and the tight supply situation continued to ease. However, the nickel ore inventory is still at a low level, and the downstream just needs to be prepared, so the ore price is expected to remain high. At present, the price of ferronickel and waste stainless steel is firm, and the output of stainless steel has reached a record high. With the arrival of the peak season of traditional consumption of stainless steel in September, the demand for nickel in stainless steel will remain high. The demand for new energy has gradually improved, and the output of new energy vehicles in China has continued to rise on a month on month basis. But the consumption terminal, the real estate investment completion still maintains the negative growth, the domestic stainless steel consumption faces the pressure. In terms of ferronickel, Indonesia’s Delong Qingshan Industrial Park was put into production at the end of the second quarter. Several production lines were still put into operation from July to August, and Indonesia NPI concentrated iron production in the later stage. A large amount of low-cost ferronickel has been returned to China, and the domestic ferronickel may be surplus in the third quarter.
3、 Future prospects
Aftermarket forecast: the short-term fundamentals of nickel are acceptable, but with the production of ferronickel, there is a certain pressure on nickel upward space, and nickel is expected to maintain a high volatility trend in the short term.
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