1、 Price data
According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the prices of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products were slightly consolidated. On August 13, the average price of petroleum coke in the market was 1209 yuan / ton, which was 2.25% lower than that of last year. On August 12, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 95.28, unchanged with yesterday, 38.76% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), and 42.44% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
The price of petroleum coke has been relatively stable in recent years, and some refineries have been hindered in shipping due to high price, and the price has been lowered. PetroChina and CNOOC are mainly weak and stable, while Sinopec’s refineries are up. The price of low sulfur coke dropped to a low level, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke increased. However, the overall market of petroleum coke showed a stable operation, because the price trend of medium and low sulfur coke was differentiated, and the market showed a pattern of rising and falling.
Upstream: crude oil prices overall high volatility, continued consolidation operation. In terms of international crude oil, although the market is worried about OPEC’s relaxation of production reduction, the US crude oil inventory has decreased significantly, and the impact of the continued weakening of the US dollar has made the international crude oil price center shift upward.
Downstream: Recently, glass prices have continued to rise, and the current demand of the terminal market is steadily increasing, which has a good supporting role for the production enterprises to leave the warehouse. In the near future, market confidence has also improved by a large margin, and market transactions are fair. The price rotation of production enterprises in each region can promote the price support of local and surrounding markets. Electrolytic aluminum market showed a high decline, carbon market was troubled by upstream and downstream factors and poor profitability.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 9 commodities in the energy sector’s rise and fall list of commodity prices in the 31st week of 2020 (8.3-8.7), with WTI crude oil (4.17%), Brent crude oil (3.61%) and naphtha (2.45%). There were five kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis. The top three products were dimethyl ether (- 1.75%), fuel oil (- 1.33%) and steam coal (- 1.27%). Both were up and down 63.0% this week.
3、 Future forecast
The oil coke analysts of business agency think: the price of low sulfur coke falls to a low level because of the poor performance of carbon market for steel, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke is relatively stable due to the high fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum market. However, due to the high decline trend of electrolytic aluminum market, the rising foundation of medium and high sulfur coke is not firm, and there are downward risks. It is comprehensively predicted that the price of Petroleum Coke will be weak and stable in the later stage Based on the demand of downstream market.
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