According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market trend of domestic PP was weak in the fourth week of July, and the prices of various brands decreased slightly. As of July 31, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 7800.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.
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Cause analysis
In terms of propylene upstream of polypropylene, according to the data from the bulk list of business associations, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price showed a typical cyclical adjustment in July, experienced three rounds of up and down shocks, with a relatively stable price range. At the beginning of the month, it was 6866 yuan / ton; at the end of the month, it was 6825 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 0.60%; the monthly high price appeared from July 9 to 11, which was 6892 yuan / ton; the monthly low price appeared on July 4 and 5, which was 6636 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 3.86%. At present, the propylene manufacturers have smooth shipment and no inventory pressure. Although the price of crude oil has declined slightly, the overall market in the lower reaches of the country is relatively ideal in the near future. The market price of propylene has been rising continuously. Although it has not reached the upper limit, the purchasing enthusiasm has been slightly reduced. It is mainly on demand and the market atmosphere is general. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will rise slightly again and stabilize in the near future.
The upstream propylene recovered after falling in the first ten days of July and is currently in the high range, which has cost support for PP. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market performance of PP (wire drawing) was relatively strong at the beginning of the month. The spot price began to rise on the 6th, with an average increase of about 250 yuan / ton for each brand. On the 9th, the drawing material reached a July high of 8066.67 yuan / ton. Then to the end of the month, PP (drawing) market performance slow down callback. In recent years, the production line maintenance downtime is more, the wire drawing schedule proportion decreased in July, the powder operating rate was also affected by previous news, but it was reported that new equipment was put into operation in the second half of the year. In terms of demand, there was a shock of imported materials arriving in Hong Kong in July, but it was difficult to accumulate inventory. On the demand side, the improvement is limited. At present, the downstream stock mood is not high, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the actual trading atmosphere is relatively cold. In addition, futures in late July fell, causing the market to fall with the mentality. However, at the end of the month, the completion of tasks of businesses was better, and the pressure of shipment was less than expected. In the near future, due to the good news of port arrival delay, PP (wire drawing) price is expected to rise.
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According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 31, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 7833.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the domestic PP (fiber) price market in July was similar to that of PP (drawing). In terms of fiber materials, the hidden inventory caused by overproduction has been digested, and PP (fiber) has completely ended the “debt repayment” market last month. Although the overall disk helped the macro demand, the de stocking speed slowed down in the middle and late ten days, the pressure on the supply side increased, and there was profit yield at the end of the month. Downstream factories have a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere, insufficient follow-up of purchasing, and poor trading in the field. The recent extreme weather has delayed the arrival of imported goods, and PP (fiber) is expected to rise.
The market of PP melt blown materials continues to be weak. According to the prices of business agencies, the current domestic prices of PP (melt blown) materials continue to decline. As of July 31, the average quoted price of melt blown PP for melt index 1500 by sample enterprises was about 16733.33 yuan / ton. Domestic public health events were generally stable, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials decreased rapidly. At present, the supply of epidemic prevention related products exceeds the demand, and most of the prices have fallen. The demand for melt blown fabric directly downstream also shrinks greatly, and the diversification of epidemic prevention materials also has a certain dispersion on the demand for masks. PP (melt blown) has fallen with the downstream, the business mentality is negative, and the phenomenon of leaving the field is still more. It is expected that melt blown fabric will still be difficult to improve in the near future.
Future forecast
PP business agency analysts believe: July domestic PP spot market trend is generally consolidation. Upstream propylene market volatility, the cost of PP support in general. PP (drawing) prices rose in July after callback, PP (fiber) big stable small move. PP (melt blown) demand weakened, prices continue to callback. At present, the favorable situation of domestic maintenance and the news of production line in the second half of the year coexist, and the terminal digestion slows down the storage of petrochemical plants. The follow-up of downstream factories’ stock preparation is poor, and the shipment situation of merchants is general. In August, PP futures rose due to the good news of the arrival of imported goods due to the typhoon, which boosted the rise of spot prices. Recently, the trading atmosphere has also recovered. It is expected that PP prices will rise further.
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