Commodity index: on July 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 82.89, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new historical low in the cycle, which was 22.63% lower than the highest point of 107.13 on May 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)
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The data showed that polyacrylamide decreased slightly in the last week of July. In the first half of the month, many companies cut prices, the overall range is not very large; in the second half of the month, the number of price adjustment enterprises is less, but the adjustment of single enterprise is greater. On July 27, 2020, the mainstream market quotation was 13600 yuan / ton, and on July 31, it was 13566.67 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.25% this week. Domestic mainstream quotation: cationic: molecular weight 12 million (10-30 ionic degree) quotation 13000-15000 yuan / ton; anion: molecular weight 10 million yuan / ton 6800-9600 yuan / ton, molecular weight 12 million yuan 7800-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 14 million solid particles 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 16 million solid particles 9600-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 18 million solid particles 10400-11000 yuan/ Tons, molecular weight 18-20 million, powdery offer 12000-12500 yuan / ton; non-ionic: about 12000-13000 yuan / ton.
The price of upstream acrylonitrile has been raised by 50-100 yuan / ton for consecutive days this week, especially in the last few days of the month. The price of acrylonitrile in the 31 daily report increased by about 300 yuan / ton at 7600 yuan / ton. Plant performance: Fushun Petrochemical’s 92000 T / a acrylonitrile was shut down for maintenance on July 23, and restarted on July 28, with 80% of the plant operating. 2. The 130000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Shandong Haijiang Chemical Co., Ltd. is planned to shut down at the beginning of August, or last for about one month. Shanghai Secco acrylonitrile plant plans to overhaul a production line in late August, with an estimated loss of about 3000 tons. The acrylonitrile plant in srbon was shut down on July 16 and is expected to restart before and after August 5. Asahi Asahi’s Far East contract proposal price in August implemented $1090 / T CFR, down $50 / T from last month.. In terms of downstream demand, the demand for polyacrylamide has not improved, and the boosting effect on the price has not appeared.
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From the perspective of industry, since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products in line with the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determines the price and cost, which has different impact on the production cost. As far as the whole industry is concerned, the cost reduction and the demand for The difference is to determine the market trend, this month the market is still weak in stability.
In terms of the future market, the analysis by the business agency shows that the cost of polyacrylamide has been up first and then up, and the demand side has not improved greatly. In the second half of the year, the development of water treatment industry is difficult, and the future market is still mainly stable with small flexible adjustment. In the third quarter, the economic situation is expected to be better, and the demand for polyacrylamide is improved, the price may become stronger, but at present, it is still a little far away.
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