1、 Trend analysis
On the 22nd, the spot copper price was 52565 yuan / ton, up 1.26% compared with the previous day, 7.2% higher than the beginning of the year, and 10.33% higher than the same period last year. Shanghai copper’s main early morning trading rose 52830 yuan and then fell back to close at 52410 yuan, up 1.04%. LME copper’s 3-month contract rose slightly to US $6601.5 and then fell back. As of the Asian market closing, LME copper closed at US $6572, up 0.14%.
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Overnight, the European Union recovery fund reached an agreement, and the United States considered launching a new round of stimulus package. The market’s confidence in the expected economic recovery was boosted, most commodities rose, and copper prices rebounded slightly. The supply disturbance at the mine end is still continuing, and domestic inventory is accumulating, but the overseas inventory is continuing to decline. In June, the operating rate of refined copper rod-making enterprises was 78.66%, with a month on month decrease of 1.70 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 3.01 percentage points. In April, the concentrated effect of order concentration continued to weaken in May and June, while the stock orders of enterprises decreased. The order of refined copper rod is obviously impacted by scrap copper rod, and the operating rate of 7 refined copper rod making enterprises is expected to further drop to 76.79%. The current market into the off-season, downstream orders continue to decline, the average operating rate of processing enterprises is still not high, downstream demand is relatively low.
In view of the above situation, since the outbreak of the epidemic in South America, the market has had certain concerns about the supply of copper and supported the copper price. July and August are the off-season of consumption in the downstream, and orders show signs of weakening. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.
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