1、 Price trend
According to the data of the business club, the domestic toluene market has been stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3490 yuan / ton, up 0.29% month on month.
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2、 Analysis and comment
This week, the overall price of toluene was stable, affected by the lower demand for blended oil, the demand for toluene decreased, the market trading atmosphere was not active, and the price was slightly weak. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3400 yuan / ton. Due to the uncertain outlook of crude oil supply and demand, the future market continues to pay attention to the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the meeting news of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15 to discuss a record production reduction agreement. According to the current arrangement, the production reduction agreement will last until the end of July, and then the reduction range will begin to shrink.
Upstream, crude oil, international oil prices fluctuated slightly this week. The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its demand forecast for 2020, and US energy companies reduced the number of active rigs to a record low for the 10th consecutive week, supporting oil prices. But a record number of new cases in the United States has hit expectations of a rapid recovery in fuel consumption. Long space back and forth saw, overall maintain shock trend. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent was down 1.21%, Brent futures was down 0.77%, WTI futures was down 2.28%, and Dubai futures was up 2.25%.
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In terms of TDI downstream, the market has begun to stabilize. At present, the domestic outbound quotation with bill of lading refers to RMB 10000-10300 / T, and that of Shanghai with bill of lading is around RMB 10500 / T. it is expected that the short-term TDI market will be stable. In terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week is about 4800 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 521 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 541 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
In the short term, the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling wells and EIA inventory situation are considered by toluene analysts of business club chemical branch. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the impact of the second outbreak in Europe and the United States on the economic restart of crude oil demand, and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the news of the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15 to discuss the record production reduction agreement, as well as the trend of international crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic market toluene price will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.
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