In the year, the price of aluminum exceeded 15000 yuan / ton for the first time

On July 13, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market was 15343.33 yuan / ton, and the spot aluminum price exceeded 15000 yuan / ton for the first time in the year.

 

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According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market on July 13 was 15343.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.72% compared with the average market price of 14376.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (July 1), 5.43% higher than the valley value of average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 11230 yuan / ton (March 24), an increase of 36.55%.

 

Rising logic support

 

1. The social low inventory pattern is formed

 

From the current high level of 1.67 million tons to less than 800 thousand tons, the basic inventory of aluminum ingots in China has decreased significantly.

 

2. Expected improvement of downstream demand

 

The auto market and real estate market continued to pick up. In June, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.235 million and 2.3 million respectively, up 6.3% and 4.8% on a month on month basis, and increased by 22.5% and 11.6% year on year, respectively. The production and sales both reached a new record in June. In terms of real estate, the market turnover in June recovered strongly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.2%.

 

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With the continuous progress of new infrastructure, the new demand for aluminum is expected to be strong. New infrastructure construction, such as 5g base station construction, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and urban rail transit, new energy vehicle charging pile, big data center, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet and other fields are developing strongly, and the new demand for aluminum is expected.

 

3. Monetary easing policy

 

With frequent monetary easing policies in various countries, central banks of various countries have “opened sluice gates to release water”, the liquidity of capital market is relatively released, and the attribute of non-ferrous plate is strong. In addition, the recent price is relatively low, and the capital market is highly concerned.

 

Future expectations

 

The impact of money making effect, by buying up not buying down market expectations, the collective outbreak of nonferrous plate, the rate will last for a period of time. It is expected that in the near future, the main trend is to maintain a firm and good operation, and the aluminum price is likely to stand at the 15000 line.

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