1、 Price trend
According to business agency data, on July 10, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 3617 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week.
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On July 9, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3460 yuan / ton, down 35 yuan / ton or 1.00% compared with the same period last week.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
As of July 9, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1422100 tons, an increase of 71700 tons, or 5.31%, compared with last Thursday, and 62500 tons, or 4.60%, compared with Monday. Inventory continued to rise.
In terms of shipment, this week, the average daily delivery of Zhangjiagang main port was about 6800 tons, and that of Taicang two warehouses was about 6900 tons, which was lower than that of last week.
At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 51%, and that of polyester is about 86%, which is the same as last week.
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In terms of units, the overhaul of the ethylene glycol unit with an annual output of 420000 tons in Tianjin has been completed, and it has entered the preparation stage for restart recently. It is expected that the ethylene glycol link will start discharging next week; the ethylene glycol unit with an annual output of 300000 tons of Tongliao Jinmei Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has recently entered maintenance, with an estimated time of one month.
In terms of futures, due to the low terminal demand, the rise of polyester inventory, coupled with the decline of crude oil and the lack of support at the cost side, the recent ethylene glycol futures are weak and volatile.
3、 Analysis and prediction
Although domestic ethylene glycol manufacturers shut down their plants one after another in the face of increasing losses, due to the continuous arrival of overseas supplies, the supply is abundant. Although the storage capacity is close to saturation, but the news of existing leased storage tanks is coming out, it is obvious that the subsequent inventory is likely to continue to rise. The downstream polyester entered the off-season, and the inventory pressure was large, resulting in the demand for ethylene glycol continued to weaken on the basis of the previous stage. It can be seen that the recent ethylene glycol price is difficult to have sustained upward momentum.
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