1、 Price trend
According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on April 1 was 2083 yuan / ton, and that on June 30 was 1866 yuan / ton. The overall price of powdered monoammonium phosphate fell by 10.40% in the second quarter. The lowest price in the quarter was 1856 yuan / ton, and the highest price was 2083 yuan / ton.
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According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on April 1 was 2225 yuan / ton, and that on June 30 was 2145 yuan / ton. The overall price of diammonium phosphate fell by 3.58% in the second quarter. In the quarter, the lowest price is 2145 yuan / ton, and the highest price is 2225 yuan / ton.
2、 Market analysis
Due to poor demand, monoammonium phosphate fell sharply in the second quarter. In April, the raw material market of ammonium phosphate was not good, and the downstream demand decreased, resulting in the continuous downturn of ammonium phosphate trend. Monoammonium phosphate turned into off season, and the trading volume decreased. The market of ammonium phosphate raw materials rose and fell in May, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer was insufficient. Monoammonium phosphate received some orders in advance, and the inventory pressure decreased. In June, the market of ammonium phosphate raw materials rose, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer was still weak. The amount of pre-sale orders of monoammonium phosphate was large, and the price increased slightly. Monoammonium phosphate industry is more optimistic, but the downstream compound fertilizer follow-up is insufficient, against high prices. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 1900-1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan maintained stable operation, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at about 1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.
Due to fierce export competition, diammonium phosphate market fell in the second quarter. In April, domestic demand for diammonium phosphate decreased and gradually turned to export, with lower price. In May, the domestic demand for diammonium phosphate decreased, and the supply decreased, resulting in fierce export competition. Domestic demand for diammonium phosphate did not improve in June, and most of them were sold on demand. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2150-2250 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, and that in Anhui Province is 2200-2350 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2250-2400 yuan / T. The quotation of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2400 yuan / ton.
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In April, the market of raw material phosphate ore continued to operate stably, and the market remained stable. There was no fluctuation in the market as a whole. The factory continued to supply old orders, and the increment of new orders was still small. The trend of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is low, and the transaction focus continues to fall. The domestic market of raw material sulfur is stable and upward, and the price of sulfur at port rises. However, there is no large deal in the market. The shippers in Hong Kong are not in a hurry to ship, and the buyers follow the market. The quotation of domestic refineries is slightly adjusted. In May, the overall weakness of phosphate ore market was downward, the market was weak and the downstream support was insufficient. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprise market is not clear, weak operation, prices fell slightly. Compound fertilizer enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw material ammonium phosphate, reducing demand and increasing equipment maintenance. In June, the overall market of phosphate ore in China is weak, and the market in many regions is weak and stable. With the arrival of the traditional off-season, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. Domestic sulfur inventory is low and supply is reduced.
3、 Future forecast
Ammonium phosphate analysts of business club believe that in the off-season of phosphate fertilizer in the second quarter, the market of raw materials for ammonium phosphate is not good, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer is weakened, and there is no good support, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of ammonium phosphate. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will slightly improve in the third quarter, and the market trend will be stable. It is suggested to pay attention to the introduction of fertilizer policy in autumn.
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