Since the beginning of June, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber (BR) ended its downward trend in May and started the upward Road, and its price went up sharply. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 7630 yuan / ton at the beginning of June. As of July 3, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose to 8230 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 7.86%.
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From the point of view of raw material price, the price of raw material butadiene fell sharply from the beginning of June to the beginning of July, which could not promote the rise of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber from the cost side. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the butadiene price in early June was 4140 yuan / ton, and as of July 2, the butadiene price dropped to 3445 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 16.79%.
Trend chart of all steel tire operating rate from January to June 2020
From the perspective of downstream tire industry, the operating rate of all steel tire fluctuated around 70% in May and June, with little change. The demand side is mainly rigid, but the increment is not much. It forms a bottom support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the business agency, as of mid June, the operating rate of domestic all steel tire manufacturers was around 70%.
Compared with the price of natural rubber, natural rubber has driven the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber to a certain extent. At the beginning of June, the price of natural rubber was around 10120 yuan / ton, while the price of cis-1-polybutadiene rubber was 7630 yuan / ton, and the price difference was around 2400 yuan / ton. The huge price difference enhanced the substitutability of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, and pushed the price of cis-1,1-polybutadiene rubber to move up.
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In addition, judging from the recent operation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant of petrochemical manufacturers, the maintenance plan of Yanshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. of 80000 T / a cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber unit, to a certain extent, stimulated the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber to further increase. According to the business agency, Yanshan Petrochemical’s 120000 T / a gaoshun butadiene rubber plant will be shut down for maintenance from July 1, and the preliminary estimate is that the plant will be shut down for 24 days, and the factory’s inventory is low; Qilu Petrochemical’s 80000 T / a gaoshun butadiene rubber unit is planned to be shut down for maintenance in the middle of July, with an estimated time of 10-15 days.
Aftermarket forecast: business agency analysts believe that the current price rise of CIS polybutadiene rubber is still a rebound rather than a reversal, mainly due to the small improvement in demand growth. On the one hand, as the global epidemic continues to spread, trade friction is likely to intensify, casting a shadow on future demand. In addition, it is difficult for raw material prices to rebound significantly in the short term. From the perspective of the industrial chain, it is still difficult to form a profit for the later cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. On the other hand, in the short term, driven by plant maintenance and natural rubber, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber may still have a small increase space, but on the whole, the price is difficult to reach 9000 yuan / ton.
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