Price trend:
According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the domestic ABS market was relatively strong in June, and the spot price of the market was mostly increased. As of June 30, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13250.00 yuan / ton, which was 5.58% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.
| Melamine |
Factor analysis:
On the upstream side of ABS, the domestic mainstream styrene prices fluctuated generally in June. According to the monitoring results of business cooperatives, the prices of sample enterprises of business cooperatives were 5550.00 yuan / ton on June 12, 5483.33 yuan / ton on June 19, and the average prices of sample enterprises were about 5400.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.82% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 38.64% compared with the same period last year. The contradiction between supply and demand has not changed. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory of styrene has fallen down, which has a certain support for the price. However, the social stock of styrene is still at a historical high, and the increase may be restrained by more ships arriving in Hong Kong later. At present, with the enhancement of regional security inspection and epidemic prevention, the cost of warehousing freight will further rise, and the spot selling pressure will continue to increase, suppressing the future market trend;
In June, the domestic acrylonitrile market performed poorly, the operating rate of production enterprises increased, and the spot supply in the market was sufficient. The downstream should be prepared carefully, and it can be taken as soon as it is used. Demand is weak, it is difficult for businesses to ship goods, the actual transaction center is down, and the acrylonitrile market is expected to be weak;
In June, the domestic butadiene market fell to the bottom, breaking through the new low of the year. According to the monitoring price of business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 4140 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 3456 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 16.51% during the month and a decrease of 58.85% compared with the same period last year. At present, the domestic ocean going ships are abundant in Hong Kong. Although there is a certain demand for butadiene in the downstream factories of Shandong Province, the market is still weak under the influence of the abundant supply of tank farms. The transaction of some northeast spot resources is not smooth, and the manufacturers’ prices continue to fall under pressure, and the market center of gravity falls with the whole body. Recently, the external market has been in a low level, Sinopec’s butadiene supply price has been lowered, and Shenhua Ningxia coal and Yangba butadiene plants have been restarted in the middle and late June, adding to the expected arrival of European ships. As a result, the supply side of the domestic butadiene market continues to increase. Although the start-up of major downstream industries remains relatively high, it is difficult to reverse the downward trend of butadiene market rapidly under the pressure of supply side. The market of butadiene continued in the low range. In the future, supply pressure may become normal, and there is no obvious improvement in fundamentals. Under the boost, the domestic butadiene market continues to fluctuate in the bottom range. It is suggested to pay attention to the latest price and transaction guidance of internal and external markets;
| EDTA 2Na |
This month, the domestic ABS market stabilized after rising, which was due to the positive effect on the market of helmet consumption stimulated by relevant regulations of helmet safety guard action last month. Therefore, the operating rate of ABS petrochemical plant in China was almost full load operation. According to statistics, in June, the overall domestic ABS plant was started about 97%, and the total output was about 335000 tons. In the first half of 2020, the domestic ABS production was about 1828000 tons. In June, the operating rate and output of ABS polymerization plant decreased, indicating that the downstream demand was weakened. The existing inventory is still at a low level, and the lack of on-site spot circulation is the driving force to support the prices of merchants. At the end of the month, the market performance was calm, and the downstream factories were mainly cautious in stock preparation. Some brands had a narrow range of 50-150 yuan / ton, and the trend turned to a stalemate and weak.
Future forecast:
Business agency analysts believe: ABS market in June after a standstill, the price of each brand is high. Cost side of the upstream three material trend is not good, the cost side support is weak. At present, the ABS spot supply is still less, the downstream of the ABS high price goods conflict, just take the goods to the bill, merchants are currently limited profit margin. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be adjusted downward in a narrow range in the near future.
| EDTA |