In 2020, affected by the epidemic situation, the phenol market hit a new low in the first half of the year. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the phenol commodity index on July 1 was 55.01, down 0.94 points compared with yesterday, 44.99% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 47.72% higher than 37.24 points, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
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Trend of phenol commodity index in East China from 2011 to 2020
On January 1, 2020, the average price of phenol in China was 7325 yuan / ton, and that in April 7 was 4900 yuan / ton, with the market down by 33.11%. Among them, the East China market dropped from 7300 yuan / ton on January 1 to 4500 yuan / ton on April 2, with a drop of 38.4% in the East China market. From the above point of view, the phenol market has reached a new record low (since 2011).
Trend chart of average price of phenol in the national market in 2020
2020 is an extraordinary year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the epidemic broke out in an all-round way, and the logistics and transportation were blocked in all parts of the country. The phenol market also experienced an unusual period in this year. Under the domestic epidemic situation, the market was more sluggish, with few transactions. However, the phenol market price fluctuated little. From the trend of phenol Market in the first two months, the overall price was 7000 yuan/ About tons. However, after the global epidemic is serious and crude oil has plummeted, phenol, like most petrochemical products, is constantly breaking the low point. In 2020, we will witness too many historical moments. Specifically:
From January to February, the domestic phenol market was almost quiet. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the daily price of phenol in January 1 was 7325 yuan / ton, and that in February 18 was 7425 yuan / ton, with a maximum amplitude of 4% in a month and a half. Then, in late February, the market calm was finally broken. The business agency investigated more than 20 enterprises in the national phenol ketone industry chain, and most of them were in operation, but compared with the pre holiday operating rate With the gradual resumption of the market, the logistics and transportation problems are gradually alleviated. There are still difficulties in the short-term substantial increase of demand. The mentality is insufficient, the low price is frequent, and the focus of negotiation is constantly falling. As of February 28, the average offer of phenol Market in China was 7062 yuan / ton, which was 7.38% lower than that in the middle of February.
In March, the phenol market officially started a sharp decline trend. OPEC held a ministerial meeting on March 5, which decided to recommend that OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries implement an additional production reduction of 1.5 million barrels per day until the end of this year, and also proposed to extend the current production reduction plan of 1.7 million barrels per day from the end of March to the end of this year. As OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries failed to reach a consensus, Saudi Arabia substantially reduced the price of crude oil sold to foreign markets such as Europe, the Far East and the United States, and Saudi Arabia also intended to increase production. As soon as the news came out, the crude oil market experienced a rare one-day slump of 30%. Under the impact of public events and crude oil plummeting, the petrochemical market suffered a serious setback in the whole industrial chain, and the petrochemical phenol also showed up A cliff fall. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the phenol market continued to decline in March, with a cumulative decline of more than 30%. As of the Qingming Festival, the East China market quotation fell to 4500 yuan / ton.
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From April to may, the sharp rise of crude oil led the phenol Market to stop falling and recover, breaking out of the trough. First, affected by the expected agreement on production reduction between Saudi Arabia and Russia, WTI and Brent soared by 25% in a single day. After the Qingming Festival, the listing price of pure benzene rose from 2250-2850 yuan / ton (average price 2450 yuan / ton) to 2850-3800 yuan / ton (average price of 3240 yuan / ton) on the 10th day, an increase of 32.4%. As an important raw material of phenol, pure benzene promoted the rise of phenol and increased market participation With the recovery of terminal operating rate, the phenol market gradually pushed up in the rise and fall of phenol Market. Second, affected by the 200% rise of acetone, a byproduct of the same plant, the phenol ketone industrial chain is very bright in the whole chemical industry. The sharp rise of acetone drives up the upstream and downstream products of the whole industrial chain. The rising of common raw materials is good for the cost support of phenol market and the market activity is improved.
In June, the first ten days were supported by the early positive, continued the upward trend, and the second ten days turned down mainly. The phenol Market offered 6750 yuan / ton on June 1, 7925 yuan / ton on June 9, up 17.41% in 9 days, and 7150 yuan / ton on June 30, a decrease of 9.78% compared with that on June 9. However, from the perspective of the mainstream East China, it fell below 7000 yuan / ton in July. In the late June, the phenol market fell into a weak and weak downturn. Although the operating rate of domestic phenol plants decreased again narrowly, the overall operation rate was 60-70%. Among them, Changshu Changchun and Tianjin Zhongsha continued to shut down, Yangzhou Shiyou’s operating rate was reduced by about 60-70%. It is expected that the plant will be shut down for short-term maintenance at the beginning of next month, and Huizhou Zhongxin in South China will resume the restart last week. In terms of ports, a small amount of goods arrived in late June for replenishment. After the Dragon Boat Festival, Hengyang replenished about 5000 tons, and Huaxi added more than 2000 tons. The port inventory is relatively reasonable, not high or low, and the supply side is not under pressure. Although the supply side is relatively reasonable, the market is in the psychological state of buying up and not buying down, the enthusiasm of intermediate traders to participate is not high, and the situation of terminal factories is not optimistic. The factories purchase more on demand, and a small amount of inventory. Many mainstream end users keep reducing the operating rate because of the downward trend of the industrial chain, and only sell the inventory of enterprises. In the late June, the downstream demand is not good The market continues to decline.
Recent maintenance status of phenol ketone plants in China
In July, the operating rate of phenol plants in China has dropped to 60%. In July, the 350000 T / a phenol ketone plant in Tianjin Zhongsha is expected to start on July 10, the 400000 T / a phenol ketone plant of Shanghai xisa chemical is expected to start in late July, the 320000 T / a phenol ketone unit of Yangzhou Shiyou is expected to start on July 10, and the 400000 t / a phenol ketone unit of Sinopec No.3 well will be shut down on June 28, and it is expected to start up at the end of August. Therefore, from the late July, the operating rate is expected to rise, the supply is relatively sufficient, the demand side is looking at the low buying gas, the industry is not prosperous, and the factory start-up is also gradually declining. In the international situation, some factories are gradually returning to work, and the import volume is steadily increasing. The business association predicts that the demand side is hard to say good, and the supply side is full of bad news. The phenol Market is expected to be 6400-6800 yuan / ton in July.
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