According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in June, the price of PTA spot market in China showed an upward trend of “m” shocks. Under the favorable support of cost, in the face of the weakness of high inventory and terminal traditional off-season demand, the increase narrowed compared with May. As of June 28, the market average price was 3661 yuan / ton, up 3.02% from the beginning of the month, down 42.48% year-on-year.
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As can be seen from the figure above, the recent stronger cost has boosted PTA market. Crude oil is still in the production reduction cycle, and the price continues to fluctuate and climb. On June 24, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $38.01/barrel, and that of Brent crude oil futures was $40.31/barrel. The international oil price fluctuated strongly, and the incidents of routine and unscheduled maintenance and production reduction of PX devices in Asia were concentrated. PX bottomed out and rebounded under this boost. As of June 24, the closing prices in Asia were 556 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 576 US dollars / ton CFR in China. The domestic PX prices were 4300 yuan / ton, up 4.88% from the beginning of the month, down 38.57% year on year.
Recent changes in PX units in Asia
Enterprise name: operation trend of production capacity (10000 t / a) device
South Korea SK 130 plans to stop for six weeks in the middle and late June
South Korea GS 40 2 planned to be overhauled from June 27 to July 7
Thailand PTT 77 2 delayed to July for 17 days
Hanhua chemical 70 1 has been restarted
Taiwan FCFC 87 3 restart time delayed
Two sets of JX 82 in Japan started maintenance in the first ten days of May, and it is planned to restart in the first ten days of July
India ompl 90 unplanned stop in April, restart to be determined
Routine maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical 65 from June 19 to July 5
Sinopec 160 plans to maintain for 40 days in October
Overhaul of Tianjin Petrochemical from April 30 to July 5
Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. stopped for 6 months on January 16.
Sinochem Hongrun 80 restart in parking to be determined
Fuhua industry and Trade Co., Ltd. 80 2 times, restart in parking to be determined
From the perspective of PTA supply, 2.2 million tons of unexpected shutdown of Hanbang petrochemical and 4.5 million tons of short-term negative load reduction of Fuhai, and PTA operation rate fell to 83% in early June. However, with Sichuan energy investment’s 1 million ton PTA plant restarted after the short-term shutdown at the beginning of the month, especially the 400000 tons of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and 2.2 million tons of Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. at the end of the month, and the 350000 tons of Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. started to restart and heat up one after another, the current PTA starting load has increased to more than 92%. In early July, Ningbo Yisheng planned a short stop of 2.2 million tons. In addition, Jialong petrochemical, Pengwei petrochemical, Liwan polyester, Tianjin Petrochemical and Hanbang Petrochemical are still in the stop phase, and the restart time is to be determined.
Recent changes of PTA plant in China
Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit
Ningbo Yisheng 220 plans to have a short maintenance period of 2-3 days in early July 2020
Yangzi Petrochemical 35 to restart on June 22, 2020
65. Maintenance planned by the end of June 2020
Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined
Hanbang Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 9, 60, restart to be determined
220 stop at night on May 19, warm up and restart on June 18, discharge on June 22
Shanghai Petrochemical entered into maintenance on May 18, failed to restart on the afternoon of June 19, re feeding on June 21 and discharging on June 22
Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on April 17, and restart to be determined
Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July
Chuanneng Chemical Co., Ltd. operates at 70% of the load after a short shutdown on June 1, and now operates at full load
Fuhaichuang 450 took off and landed negative alkali washing on June 8, and the load increased on June 12
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Jialong Petrochemical 60 will stop for maintenance from February 21 to March 5, 2019; it will stop for maintenance on August 2, with the restart time to be determined
In terms of inventory, affected by the shutdown of two major factories in June, PTA market was in a state of slight de stocking of 3.75 million tons, down from last month, but increased by nearly 2.5 million tons compared with the same period of last year, still at a high level, which is not enough to reverse the industrial pattern of supply and demand surplus of PTA in the medium and long term, and the current situation of high inventory is difficult to resolve.
The production and sales of polyester in the downstream market are flat, and the current operating rate is close to 85%. Tianjin Petrochemical’s 200000 ton polyester plant and xinfengming’s 250000 ton polyester plant are planned to restart, Anhui Jinzhai Xinlun’s 120000 ton staple fiber plan is put into production, and Yizheng Chemical fiber’s 200000 ton new staple fiber plan is planned to put into production. Therefore, it is expected that the polyester operation will be improved in July. However, the off-season atmosphere of the terminal textile and weaving market has gradually deepened, which is even more difficult when it is in the off-season of a special year. Most of the weaving enterprises have started to significantly reduce the start-up rate, and the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has again slightly dropped to below 61%. In terms of price, after the middle of each product market, polyester filament market has declined in varying degrees, including polyester staple fiber monthly decline of 9.91%.
Xia Ting, an analyst at the business club, believes that although the cost support is enhanced, there is an expectation that Hengli Petrochemical will put in new capacity at the supply end of PTA itself. In addition, multiple units will be restarted at the end of the month. At the same time, the terminal demand is off-season, and the weaving enterprises are planning to reduce the load and take a vacation. The demand is also expected to be difficult to form a greater boost. Once again, they turn to the accumulation warehouse to weaken the PTA market price, and the PTA price focus is expected to move down in July.
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