In June, the phenol Market, supported by various favorable factors, soared rapidly. Taking the offer of the market in East China as an example, the market rose from 6750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8100 yuan / ton on the 9th, with an increase of 20% on the 9th.
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First, the supply side was tight, and the operating rate of domestic phenol and ketone enterprises fell to 70%. At that time, under the maintenance of factories in North China, the supply volume was reduced. According to the plan, the supply side in North China was tight. In addition, the inventory of Jiangyin port was low, and the inventory of Hengyang and West China was less than 20000 tons. The attitude of the cargo supplier was very clear, and the low price was not available, which pushed up continuously for several days. Second, affected by the overall upward trend of the industrial chain, for example, acetone, a joint product of phenol, has increased by up to 200% as of the first ten days of June, setting a historical record, which has driven the products in the upstream and downstream industrial chains to rise sharply. Third, the cost surface support effectively overlaps the continuous rise of main downstream terminals. In the first ten days of June, the upstream of phenol rose as a whole, with pure benzene up 2.22% and propylene up 3.16%. On the downstream demand side, the main terminal bisphenol a market was quoted at 8800 yuan / ton on May 5, 12450 yuan / ton on June 9. After the May Day holiday, the bisphenol a market rose 41.48% in total, and 11017 yuan / ton on June 1. In the first ten days of June, it continued to rise, up 13% in nine days.
Up and down of phenol upstream and downstream on June 1-9
After the middle of June, the phenol quickly recovered after the rapid increase. The reason is that most factories in the downstream are weak as a whole, which obviously contradicts the high price. The low price tray holders often make profits and ship goods frequently, and the market quickly declines. Although the limited supply of factories and the general supply of imported goods are common, and the market supply pressure is not great, it is not easy to explore the rise again after the fall of phenol Market, mainly because the overall downturn of downstream terminals makes it difficult to significantly improve demand, the market trading is cold, and offers are few, and the phenol Market is in a dilemma under the market situation of weak supply and demand.
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In late June, phenol market fell into a weak and weak downturn. The operation rate of phenol plants in China has been reduced again in a narrow range, with the overall operation rate of 60-70%. Among them, Changshu Changchun and Tianjin Zhongsha continue to park, Yangzhou Shiyou’s operation rate has been reduced in a narrow range of about 6-70%. It is expected that the short-term shutdown and maintenance will be carried out in the early next month, and Huizhou Zhongxin in South China will resume the restart last week. In terms of ports, there was a small amount of replenishment in late June. After the Dragon Boat Festival, Hengyang replenished about 5000 tons, and Huaxi replenished more than 2000 tons. The port inventory was relatively reasonable, not high or low, and the supply side was under little pressure. Although the supply side is relatively reasonable, in the psychological state of buying up and not buying down, the enthusiasm of the intermediate traders is not high, and the situation of the terminal factory is not optimistic. The factory purchases more on demand, with a small amount of inventory, and many mainstream end users are hard to say good because of the downward industrial chain, constantly reducing the operating rate, only selling the enterprise’s inventory. In the middle and late June, the demand in the downstream is poor Next, the market keeps falling.
From the perspective of the business community, near the end of the month, the expected amount of factory maintenance increases, the operating rate is at a low state, the supply of port goods is generally replenished, and the pressure of port storage is not great, so the supply side is relatively reasonable. However, the demand side is sluggish and hard to change. There are few replenishments in the market before the festival, and few market transactions. The market may continue to maintain this trend at the end of the month after the festival. There is not much supply in the hands of the goods holders, and there is little room for the market to go down again. However, in the case of sluggish demand for the terminals and no intentional participation of the intermediate traders, the market cannot be improved. The business community expects that the supply side will not be good and the demand side will not be good The overall downturn, in the situation of two weak supply, phenol short-term ups and downs dilemma, the market price of phenol in East China may be 7000 yuan / ton, the national market offer space is 7000-7300 yuan / ton.
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