On June 22, the domestic PTA spot market price was 3685 yuan / ton, down 0.29% from the previous day, down 38.30% year on year. PTA main futures (2009) also declined to close at 3710, down 16% or 0.43% from the previous trading day.
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The raw material market is good for PTA market mentality. On June 19, crude oil market fluctuated and climbed. The settlement price of main contracts of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $39.75/barrel, up $0.91 compared with the previous trading day. The settlement price of main contracts of Brent crude oil futures was $42.19, up $0.68. PX was boosted by this, closing at $557 / T FOB South Korea and $577 / T CFR China in Asia, up $22 / T from the previous day.
Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit
Yangzi Petrochemical 65 plans to overhaul by the end of June 2020
Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined
Hanbang Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 9, 60, restart to be determined
220 stop at night on May 19, start heating and restart on June 18, but no material has been discharged so far
Shanghai Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 18, and was restarted on the afternoon of June 19, but it has not been discharged so far
Tianjin Petrochemical 34 shut down for maintenance on April 17 and restart to be determined
Luoyang Petrochemical 32.5 April 19-july 22, 2019 shutdown for maintenance
Pengwei Petrochemical 90 stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July
Fuhaichuang 450 took off and landed negative alkali washing on June 8, and the load increased on June 12
However, the current PTA social inventory is close to 4 million tons, which is still at a high level. In terms of plant, with the 2.2 million ton plant of Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. starting to heat up and restart on the 18th, the 400000 ton plant of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was re fed on the 21st. Meanwhile, the new 2.5 million ton plant of Hengli at the end of the month is expected to be put into operation, and PTA market supply will increase periodically, which is not conducive to inventory digestion. In addition, PTA processing fee is still close to 700 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer is still in a good profit state, which does not exclude the possibility of postponement of factory maintenance plan.
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The production and marketing of downstream polyester market is flat, and the current operating rate is close to 85%. On June 20, Shenghong 250000 tons of polyester was put into production for discharging, Yisheng Hainan 500000 tons of qualified products new device load was close to 50%, and Anhui Jinzhai new fiber 120000 tons of staple fiber plan was restarted. With the discharging and restarting, the operating rate will be improved to some extent. However, the off-season atmosphere of the terminal textile and weaving market has gradually deepened, and it is even more difficult when it is in the off-season of a special year. Most of the weaving enterprises have started to significantly reduce the start-up rate, and the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has again slightly dropped to below 63%. In terms of price, the market of various products in polyester filament market showed a slight downward trend, of which the decline of polyester FDY on the 22nd day was 1.69%, and the quotation of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 6150-6450 yuan / ton.
Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that crude oil is still in the period of production reduction, and PX has a strong trend in the near future, which is supported by PTA driven by cost. However, in the near future, the restart of its own devices and the production of new capacity are expected to be bad for the market. At the same time, at the end of textile consumption level, domestic demand is reduced, and it is difficult to make a breakthrough in export sales. In the future, there is a lack of further improvement power. It is expected that PTA prices will weaken and be more likely to be adjusted.
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