On June 19, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 85.66, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.04% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.14% from 85.54, the lowest point on June 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)
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The data shows that the overall market of Polyacrylamide in May shows a downward trend; compared with the market at the end of May, the market of polyacrylamide (cation, molecular weight 12 million) stopped falling and stabilized in the first and middle of June. On June 1, 2020, the market mainstream quotation is about 14000 yuan / ton, and on June 19, the market mainstream quotation is about 14020 yuan / ton, with a correction rate of 0.14%, basically in a stable state.
First, from the perspective of industrial chain. Upstream acrylonitrile: from January to June 2020, the domestic market price first fell sharply, and then continued to callback to a certain extent. From the second half of April, it stopped falling at 6350 yuan / ton. After stabilizing for half a month, it started to rebound from May. The half month quotation went up by 800 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the second half was about 8000 yuan / ton. From June to now, after several small rebounds, it is currently stable at about 8550 yuan / ton. Downstream demand: since 2020, polyacrylamide manufacturers have always reflected that business is difficult to do, cooperation projects of downstream construction enterprises have been reduced, and the survival of water treatment engineering enterprises is difficult. At present, the local situation of epidemic situation is again severe, and the manufacturers do not dare to expect better market.
Secondly, from the perspective of manufacturer’s production. It is found that one of the main producing areas of polyacrylamide, Henan Province, has normal production and high inventory. The price of the main product specifications rebounded slightly in the second half of the month, and the basic stability is maintained: the price of cation and molecular weight 12 million is 14000-15000 yuan / ton; the price of anion and molecular weight 10 million is 8000-9000 yuan / ton, the price of molecular weight 12 million is 8800-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of molecular weight 14 million solid particles is reported Price: 9400-10000 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 16 million solid particles: 9800-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 18 million solid particles: 10400-11000 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 18-20 million powder: 12000-12500 yuan / ton, non-ionic: 12000-13000 yuan / ton, and some specifications: 300-400 yuan / ton. Restricted by the weak downstream demand and the huge sales pressure of manufacturers, the company said that there is not much profit at the current price.
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Third, from the perspective of industry. Since 2020, the prosperity of environmental water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in the main production area stopped production and delayed resumption of work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area gradually returned to work. In March, the logistics returned to normal, mainly consuming inventory. In April, the manufacturer’s survival was normal, the raw material cost was partially reduced and the demand was weak, resulting in the high inventory of the manufacturer. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery charge, the price of raw materials such as acrylonitrile rose, the factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there was a lot of inventory; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask” industrial chain relationship, the capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which more directly led to the firmness of acrylonitrile price. From June to now, the price of acrylonitrile has rebounded, but the range is relatively small. According to the introduction of the manufacturer, whether or not the raw materials are hoarded has different impact on the production cost. From the perspective of the whole industry, the poor demand is the fatal injury of the market.
As for the future market, the analysis of the business community shows that the price of the upstream raw material acrylonitrile has been slightly increased since June, while the downstream demand side has been stagnant, the enterprise has a large shipping pressure and a small profit margin. In the future, the impact of the epidemic on the market is a factor that the market is relatively worried about, and the industry is afraid of encountering an even worse situation. At present, the price may fluctuate slightly, but the market has not improved greatly.
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