1、 Price trend
In June, the decline of LNG temporarily came to an end, ushering in a wave of small gains. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on June 11 was 2503.33 yuan / ton, 1.35% higher than 2470 yuan / ton at the beginning of June, and 27.51% lower than the same period last year.
| EDTA |
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of June 11, the average price of domestic LNG was 2503.33 yuan / ton, the price in Inner Mongolia was around 2500 yuan / ton, the price in Shaanxi was around 2500 yuan / ton, the price in Shanxi was around 2550 yuan / ton, the price in Xinjiang was around 2550-3800 yuan / ton, and the rise and fall of liquid prices were mutual.
When the consumption is in the off-season, the price of domestic LNG continues to decline, and it has repeatedly reached a new low. Due to the reduction of the benchmark price of raw gas, the controllable price space of the liquid plant has increased, and the price has continued to fall to seek benefits. But at present, it has fallen near the cost line, and some manufacturers are losing money in production. In addition, the continuous price reduction of imported gas has seized the domestic market. The domestic LNG trading and investment is general, and the attitude of the industry is negative. In June, considering the cost, the trend of domestic LNG tends to be stable. At the same time, some liquid plants enter the maintenance season, and the supply end is tightened. In addition, after continuous price reduction and sales, the inventory pressure is relieved, so the liquid plants take advantage of the potential to push up tentatively. Among them, the increase in Xinjiang is obvious, mainly due to the high demand for gas stations in Xinjiang, and the favorable maintenance, with a strong price trend. On the whole, the overhaul tide of liquid plants has injected vitality into the sluggish domestic LNG market. However, restricted by the consumption season, it is difficult for the price to rise significantly.
The following is the maintenance schedule of some domestic liquid plants in the near future (for reference only)
Downstream, domestic methanol market rebounded. Some production enterprises in Northwest China have a strong optimistic attitude; freight is high, and the cost of traders is increased; the receiving center of downstream enterprises such as Lubei refinery is higher. The price of methanol in Northwest China rose partially, the market atmosphere was good, the main stream of Guanzhong rose to 1390-1500 yuan / ton, the price of goods received in Shandong and other provinces rose with the boost of futures, the downstream and traders entered the market actively to replenish goods, the trading atmosphere was active, and the main factories in Gansu had stopped selling.
| Melamine |
Dichloromethane in Shandong Province began to rise after a continuous decline. At present, the start-up of dichloromethane production enterprises is at a high level, the market spot supply is stable, the downstream market just needs to purchase, and the completion of goods preparation is good. The inventory pressure of dichloromethane enterprises can rise, and it is expected to keep stable operation in a short time.
In the middle of June, the urea market in Shandong Province may rise slightly. The quotation increased by 0.61% from 1643.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1653.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 14.92% year on year. Urea analysts of business club think that at present, agricultural demand is slightly rising, downstream industry has a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly and rise mainly.
3、 Future forecast
According to the LNG analyst of business club, in the off-season market, the downstream demand support is limited. Some factories choose to stop maintenance at this time, and the supply reduction will boost the liquid market. At present, the liquid price is hovering at the bottom, and the manufacturers’ psychology of supporting the market is rising. It is expected that the domestic LNG will rise slightly in the short term.
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