In May 2020, the domestic BDO market continued to decline and the market focus continued to move down. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, the BDO price at the beginning of the month was 9240 yuan / ton, and the BDO price at the end of the month was 8366 yuan / ton, down 9.36% in the month. The price is 6.00% lower than the same period last year.
| povidone Iodine |
This month, the focus of domestic BDO market continued to decline. The beginning of the month coincides with the May Day holiday. The downstream mainly digests the early inventory and stores a small amount of stock on the site. Kaixiang restarts a set of devices, which increases the supply of spot goods. The factory’s inventory is still overstocked in the middle and upper reaches, and it is heard that the strength of spot goods and contract rebate is greatly increased compared with that before. In the middle and lower reaches, Xiaoxing chemical, the main plant of PTMEG, stopped for maintenance, while PBT load dropped to 30-40%, the overall consumption of BDO in the lower reaches was limited, and the buyer pressed the price significantly. On June 16, an industry meeting was held. In order to reduce the inventory pressure, many factories, such as Merck, Cathay Pacific, Panjin, etc., planned to stop for maintenance in June to stimulate the downstream to buy gas. However, the downstream still chose to follow up as needed without obvious intention to make up positions. The mode of combining contract with spot was selected for procurement, and the focus of negotiation was still low. At the end of the month, as the price of raw calcium carbide continues to rise, BDO’s production profit changes from profit to loss, and the supplier’s interest intention is weakened. On May 26-27, MEC, Tunhe, Henan energy, Shaanxi chemical industry and Tianye announced the settlement in May and listing in June, of which the listing decreased by 400 yuan / ton compared with that in May.
In terms of devices, Henan hecian planned to restart in June; Dongyuan, Ronghe and Kaixiang planned to stop, and the restart time was not determined; Henan Kaixiang two sets of devices were in full load operation; Xinjiang Xinye 60000t / a device was in shutdown for maintenance, and it was planned to restart by the end of June; Ningxia Sinopec Great Wall load was 50%; Shaanxi Shaanxi Shaanxi chemical load was 70%, and it was planned to overhaul in early July; Shaanxi black cat load was 50%, and it was planned to shutdown for maintenance in June; Tianye phase I, May 18 For vehicle maintenance, it is expected to restart in the middle of June, and the restart time of other devices is unknown; Panjin Dalian stock maintenance plan in June; Guotai load 50%, heard the stock maintenance plan in June; MEC load 50%, and the whole line will be shut down for maintenance from June 3 to June 30.
Raw materials: methanol: the overall methanol price in the northwest of this month shows a downward trend, and the transaction atmosphere is first to be improved and then to be suppressed. In the first week after the festival, with the support of macro news such as the surge of international crude oil, the mentality of upstream factories was strong, and the main factories such as Rongxin and Xinao stopped selling one after another. Shenhua Ningmei’s 1 million tons of methanol were overhauled on schedule and a small amount of methanol was produced outside. The demand side was well supported. In the middle of June, with the continuous fermentation of Baofeng phase II 2.2 million methanol feeding test run and other news, the transaction atmosphere in various regions in the Northwest has been weakened, and most of the industry has left the market to wait and see. In the last ten days of the month, the price of upstream factories fell broadly under the demand of shipment, and downstream and traders actively sought for bargains and replenishment.
| Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent) |
Calcium carbide: this month, the market of calcium carbide went up. In May, the overall price was increased by 400-450 yuan / ton. At present, the main transaction price in Wuhai is 2650 yuan / ton. The overall delivery in Northwest China is smooth, and the downstream procurement is active. Affected by the price callback, the recent operating rate has increased and the supply has begun to increase. In the early stage of Ningxia, the calcium carbide devices shut down have been electrified, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. At present, the market trade price is hanging upside down, resulting in the lack of power for the factory price to keep rising. In June, the maintenance of downstream PVC and paste resin enterprises gradually increased, and the market entered the stage of supply and demand game.
In the downstream, the main downstream PTMEG: most of the BDO supporting PTMEG units have been started and maintained at 70-80%. In the BDO plant of outsourcing: Hangzhou Sanlong low negative operation; Xiaoxing chemical industry stopped for maintenance on May 18, which is estimated to be about 15 days, depending on the maintenance situation. Downstream PBT: BDO supporting downstream PBT: Meizhou Bay operates normally; Kaixiang is restarted in mid May; Tunhe River load is about 50%. BDO factory: Yizheng Chemical fiber load 60%; Nantong star normal operation; Kanghui one line operation, later or restart another line; Changshu Changchun load 50%; Wuxi Xingsheng low load; Zhejiang Meiyuan, Shandong weijiao parking. About 40% of the PBT industry was started, with limited demand.
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 47 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 31 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 34.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were ethylene (69.89%), trichloromethane (67.86%) and crude benzene (24.52%). There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month’s average rise and fall was 3.66%..
In the future, at present, BDO’s production profit changes from profit to loss, and the supplier’s mentality of stabilizing the decline increases. Next month, many factories plan to repair to reduce inventory pressure. The demand side gradually warms up with the start of PBT and PTMEG in the main downstream, and the demand may increase. However, considering that BDO still has a certain amount of social inventory, and the downstream demand recovers slowly in a short period of time, BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to decline in the first and middle of next month, but the space is limited; in the last ten days, with the demand side replenishment, the market may stabilize, and pay attention to the downstream construction and device maintenance.
| Melamine |