BDO market price continues to decline

The domestic BDO market continued to decline. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic BDO market price at the beginning of the week was 8280 yuan / ton, and the average domestic BDO market price at the end of the week was 8260 yuan / ton, with a decline of 0.24% in the week, 10.61% on month, 8.02% on year.

The domestic BDO market continued to decline this week. At present, most of the factories are in a state of loss, and the willingness of suppliers to let profits weakens. At the same time, the whole line of Meike will be shut down for maintenance from June 3, which is expected to end on June 30; Cathay Pacific plans to shut down for maintenance from June 5, and the market supply may decrease, which to some extent supports the factory to continue to support the market. However, the market finally returns to the demand side. In addition to the improvement of TPU start-up, the demand for the main PTMEG plant – Xiaoxing maintenance needs to be restored. There is no obvious fluctuation in other downstream industries, which is still low load start-up. Although the current market price is relatively low, and some of the downstream stock intention slightly increased compared with the previous period, the price depression still exists. Considering the limited stimulation of parking maintenance on downstream demand, the early inventory is difficult to digest in a short period of time, some manufacturers actively negotiate and clear the inventory, reduce the high-end supply, increase the low-end supply, and continue to focus on the weak downward to promote the single transaction.

In terms of devices, this week, MEC will stop for maintenance from June 3 to June 30; Tianye phase I 30000 ton device will stop for maintenance on May 18, which is expected to restart in the middle of June, and the restart time of other devices is uncertain; Guotai load is 50%, which is planned to stop for maintenance from June 5; black cat load is 50%, which is planned for maintenance in June; Panjin Dalian will keep maintenance plan in June, which is uncertain.

In terms of raw materials, methanol market in Northwest China this week showed a downward trend as a whole. The second phase methanol plant of Baofeng in Ningxia successively produced products, which will not be exported this week. However, the 600000 ton olefin plant of Shenhua Yulin resumed production as scheduled, and the demand gap for normal procurement in this week will be eliminated. New Austria, Rongxin and other major factories have stopped selling, and new orders are relatively smooth. At the beginning of the week, the factory shipment in Guanzhong area was blocked. After the strong rebound of Zhouzhong futures, some traders came into the market loose, and Baoji area saw a narrow push up. The delivery atmosphere in Xinjiang is acceptable. The main factory in Xinjiang Xinye methanol plant has continued maintenance, and the mainstream price is strong under the support of low supply.

Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market remained stable as a whole. Affected by the uneven regional arrival, some purchasing enterprises raised the ex factory price. The overall delivery of goods in Northwest China is smooth, but the recent trade enthusiasm has been weakened, increasing the market wait-and-see. In May, the calcium carbide market was raised by 450 yuan / ton as a whole, the market loss was reversed, and the overall enthusiasm for commencement increased. At present, the market is cautious to watch the downstream pressing situation. In the near future, Tangshan Sanyou, Lutai chemical, Dezhou Shihua PVC maintenance or planned maintenance are expected to resume procurement in succession next week, and the downstream stock recovery situation becomes the focus of attention.

Downstream demand: PBT: Kaixiang and Meizhouwan units are in normal operation; Meiyuan and Shandong weijiao are in parking; one Kanghui line is in operation, and another line will be opened later or later; Yizheng Chemical fiber load is about 60%, a 60000 ton production line is planned to be overhauled in July; Wuxi Xingsheng load is 50%; Tunhe unit current load is 50%; Changshu Changchun load is 50%. PTMEG: supporting PTMEG load is about 60%. Outsourcing plant: Xiaoxing will stop for maintenance on May 18, with an estimated 15 days; Sanlong’s load has increased. Other downstream: 50% of GBL industry’s negative load; 50% of Pu slurry load; about 70-80% of TPU current load; PBAT’s start-up is relatively stable.

At present, with the parking maintenance of Merck and other companies, the market starts to decline, and the supply side is certainly good, supporting the factory’s price keeping mentality. At the same time, the profit space has been greatly narrowed, and the willingness of suppliers to let profits has been weakened. The downstream market continued to slump, and some industries recovered slowly in the medium and short term. At present, social inventory is still overstocked in the upper and middle reaches, and active promotion is still the key work, but there is limited space for profit. BDO analysts predict that the weak domestic BDO market will be dominated by stalemate next week, focusing on the guidance of the weekend industry meeting.