The market price of butadiene rose first and then stabilized in May

In May, the domestic butadiene market rose first and then stabilized. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the month was 3890 yuan / ton, and the domestic butadiene market price at the end of the month was 4184 yuan / ton, up 7.57% in the month, with a year-on-year drop of 51.07% compared with the same period last year.

Under the expectation of unit overhaul in May, Sinopec’s price rose continuously at the end of April, which led to a wave of increase in butadiene market from the end of April to the first ten days of May. In the month, Ningmei, Zhongsha, Yangba, Lanxing, Chengzhi, srbang and other devices were shut down. In addition, the temporary short-term shutdown of Dalian Hengli device in the last ten days of the month, the operation rate of domestic butadiene industry was as low as 60%. At the same time, Shandong Huayu and Wanda rubber devices needed foreign raw materials, and the supply and demand fundamentals were good to a certain extent, boosting the market. However, since the middle of May, the ships arrived at the port intensively, and the downstream raw material inventory was relatively abundant, which resulted in the poor transaction of high price goods, and the increase of suppliers was not effectively followed up; at the end of the month, the export sales of northeast manufacturers increased, and the poor transaction once dragged the bottom price of Fushun auction down to 3100 Yuan / ton, although the price increase has brought support to the mentality of some businesses, the downstream wait-and-see situation is still obvious, and the performance of East China market is weak.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China increased by 500 yuan / ton to 4500 yuan / ton compared with the end of April, which was maintained in May; Nanjing Chengzhi 100000 ton / year oxidation and dehydrogenation unit April 7 Daily shutdown: the current shutdown status is continued, and it is planned to restart next month; Sinopec’s 200000 t / a butadiene plant will be shut down for maintenance on May 9, and the planned restart time may be July; Shenhua Ningmei’s 64000 T / a butadiene plant will be shut down for maintenance on May 5, and the planned restart time may be early June; Dalian Hengli’s 140000 T / a butadiene plant will be shut down for a short time in June, and the price will be up to the end of the month Refer to 3780 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month.

In terms of industrial chain, the downstream SBR: according to the monitoring of business agency data, the domestic SBR market was mainly volatile in May, with the price at the beginning of the month at 8220 yuan / ton, and then slightly increased to the mid month high of 8280 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month dropped to 8160 yuan / ton, with the overall end of the month falling 0.73% compared with the beginning of the month. On May 30, the SBR commodity index was 26.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 74.63% from 103.60 (2011-09-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 3.83% from 25.31, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: May cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber weak shock. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in early May was 7800 yuan / ton, then rose to the monthly high of 7875 yuan / ton, and fell to 7712 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall price at the end of the month was 1.12% lower than that at the beginning of the month. On May 30, the CIS polybutadiene rubber commodity index was 23.17, which was flat with yesterday, 77.37% lower than 102.40 (2011-09-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 2.48% higher than 22.61, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 47 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 31 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 34.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were ethylene (69.89%), trichloromethane (67.86%) and crude benzene (24.52%). There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month, the average rise and fall was 3.66%.

In the future, the overall operating rate of butadiene industry in China is relatively low in the near future, but under the influence of concentrated arrival of outward shipment, the supply side is not showing good sustainability, and the abundant supply and weak transaction in the downstream and circulation links put pressure on the market. The downstream industry’s profit stimulated construction is relatively high, and the demand side has the bottom support for Butadiene at the low price node, but the domestic butadiene market fundamentals are still weak as a whole, and the butadiene analysts of the business club expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market will fluctuate slightly.