Since October 2019, when the chemical market started the unilateral downward trend, it was not until April 2020 that the chemical market ushered in the turning point. However, in April, there was a lot of bad news. The overall increase of the market was not optimistic. After May 1st, the chemical market gradually entered a good situation, and the market showed a unilateral upward trend. According to the commodity data provider – Business Agency (100 ppi.com ）The monitoring shows that the chemical industry index on January 1, 2020 is 736 points, the chemical industry index on April 8, 2020 is 598 points, with an overall decline of 18.75%, the chemical industry index on April 30 is 621 points, the chemical industry index on May 31 is 657 points, and the chemical industry market overall rose 36 points, with an increase of 5.8%. As can be seen from the trend chart of chemical industry index in the figure below, the chemical industry market gradually recovered in May, showing a unilateral and steady upward trend, and the industry gradually recovered.
| Benzalkonium chloride |
In May, the chemical industry market as a whole showed a trend of up and down. First, affected by the sharp rise of crude oil, the whole petrochemical industry is in good condition, among which phenol ketone industry chain is outstanding, and the whole industry chain is in an upward trend, with an average increase of 12%. Second, inorganic chemical products did not perform well, chlor alkali plate, fertilizer plate and fluorine chemical industry showed a downward trend. According to the business association (100 ppi.com *** There are 37 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 17.8% of the total commodities monitored in the sector; the top 6 products with a decline are R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%), propane (- 11.97%), hydrofluoric acid (- 10.66%), light soda (- 10.26%) and R22 (- 10.10%). Chemical products rose and fell 3.66% in May.
The chemical industry market is gradually warming up, and the phenol ketone industry chain is showing an eye-catching performance
In May, the chemical industry market as a whole showed an upward trend, and the industry gradually recovered. The overall performance of phenol ketone industry chain was eye-catching, which played an important role in the overall upward trend of the chemical industry. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there are 8 rising and 1 falling commodities in the price rise and fall list of phenolic ketone industry, and 0 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities up were bisphenol A (21.78%), acetone (21.05%), pure benzene (19.21%); the main commodities down were isopropanol (- 0.86%). In the 90 chemical products monitored by the chemical industry, the average growth rate is 3.66%, of which 9 products in the phenol ketone industry chain are 12%, and the phenol ketone industry chain is the most prominent in the chemical industry.
Recently, the phenol ketone industry chain has attracted attention. First, affected by the epidemic, isopropanol has risen to a historical high in April. As an important disinfectant product, isopropanol is now favored by overseas markets, and export orders have skyrocketed. In May, isopropanol was running at a high level, up 145.45% on the same period. Second, acetone, as the raw material of isopropanol, rose significantly in May due to the soaring crude oil and tight market supply. For two consecutive months, it rose 150% in some regions, 180% higher than the previous year, a six-year high. Third, affected by the increasing cost of raw materials, the downward products of the whole industrial chain have shown a substantial increase trend, and some industries are unable to digest the pressure brought by the upward cost, which also presents a situation of overall shutdown. In a word, the star products of phenol ketone industry chain are emerging in an endless stream recently, which has attracted the attention of chemical industry market.
Crude oil soared 70% in May, boosting the chemical industry as a whole.
Since the historic OPEC + production reduction agreement came into effect in May, the situation of oversupply in the crude oil market has been greatly improved, and the market’s expectation that the oil price has been proved to be at the bottom has gradually increased. The recovery of international crude oil has led to the recovery of petrochemical sector, *** Although the terminal demand of each industrial chain is still weak, the rising crude oil will restore the market confidence.
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Inorganic chemical products such as fluorine chemical industry, chemical fertilizer industry and chlor alkali industry are in recession, with the overall downward trend.
In May, the chemical market saw a decline in 37 commodities, with R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%), propane (- 11.97%), hydrofluoric acid (- 10.66%), light soda ash (- 10.26%) and R22 (- 10.10%) as the top six products. They are all inorganic chemical products.
| Sodium Molybdate |
Three of the six chemical products (R134a, hydrofluoric acid and R22) with a large decline were fluorinated chemical products, while fluorite, another important raw material of fluorinated chemical industry, fell by 4.02% in May. On the whole, the fluorine chemical industry is affected by the epidemic situation. The demand of downstream refrigerant industry is cold, the enterprise’s operating rate is low, the terminal export is not smooth, and the raw materials from the bottom to the top continue to decline. ***
In May, the fertilizer market was in the off-season. Affected by the downturn of domestic demand and the sharp decline of exports, the performance of the fertilizer sector was not optimistic. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 1 rising commodity, 8 falling commodities and 0 rising and falling commodity in the price list of chemical fertilizer. The main commodities that rose were ammonium nitrate (1.30%); the main commodities that fell were potassium chloride (- 15.14%), monoammonium phosphate (- 5.39%), liquid ammonia (- 3.21%), and the average rise and fall in May was – 3.25%. Take potassium chloride, which has the largest decline, as an example. At present, the market is facing three major pressures, namely, the large stock of Hong Kong, the weak demand and the decline of international prices. Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is prominent. Analysts of potassium chloride in business cooperatives believe that the short-term market or low consolidation of potassium chloride is the main factor.
The uncertain factors of the current global epidemic situation and import and export trade situation are great. Both at home and abroad are actively promoting the resumption of enterprises. However, under the current background, it will take time for the overseas market to recover. Although China continues to increase various stimulus policies to promote market recovery, the recovery of the global economy is not smooth. In June, the chemical market continued to rise, but at present, the terminal product inventory is high, and the market is still under pressure. The business agency expects the chemical industry market to recover gradually in June as a whole, but the road may be more tortuous, rising and falling hard.
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