Price trend
According to the data monitoring of the business society, the price of zinc rose first and then fell in May. The overall price of zinc rose in a slight fluctuation, and the market of zinc was sluggish. As of May 31, the spot price of zinc was 16690.00 yuan / ton, up 0.26% slightly from 16646.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.
| EDTA |
Domestic zinc production
Date: monthly output (10000 tons) cumulative output (10000 tons) year on year growth (%) cumulative growth (%)
April 2020 51.7 201.3 7.3 10.7
March 2020 48.9 149.5 4.7 11
February 2020 — 104 — 12.9
December 2019 60.7 623.6 19.5 9.2
November 2019 59.4 569.2 13.1 9
October 2019 54.8 512.3 8.3 9.4
September 2019 54.8 458.3 18.9 9.5
August 2019 52.8 403.4 18.9 8.2
July 2019 51.2 343.8 17.4 6.1
June 2019 51.3 281.5 10.3 2.3
May 2019 48 226.9 7.4 – 0.6
April 2019 46.5 176.5-0.4-4.4
March 2019 45.3 130.6 0.4 – 5.1
February 2019 – 85.1 – 8.2
From the data of the National Bureau of statistics, it can be seen that in 2020, the domestic zinc output increased steadily. Although affected by the epidemic situation, the growth rate of zinc output fell in March, but the zinc output rose rapidly in April. The overall output of the domestic zinc market was sufficient, which made up for the lack of imported zinc concentrate in the domestic zinc market, and the domestic zinc market was oversupplied.
The policy is not as good as expected
| EDTA 2Na |
At 9 a.m. on May 22, Premier Li Keqiang, on behalf of the State Council, made a report on the work of the government to the third session of the 13th National People’s Congress. The report on the work of the government in 2020 does not set a specific target for the annual economic growth. Moreover, the adjusted targets in the government report are also different from expectations. New investment in traditional infrastructure projects is limited, zinc demand is not up to expected, and zinc power is not enough.
Purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry fell slightly
China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.6% in May, down 0.2 percentage points from last month, according to the National Bureau of statistics. Although production continued to recover in May, and new orders increased, the global economic situation is still grim and complex, and foreign market demand continues to shrink. In May, the new export order index and import index of manufacturing industry were 35.3% and 45.3% respectively, both at historically low levels. From the perspective of macro-economy, the economy has recovered and the demand has risen with it, but the growth rate is worrying, which is not up to the market expectation.
Analysis, review and Prospect
According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, the national economy continued to pick up in May, the demand for basic metals rose slowly, and the demand for zinc ingots followed the rise. However, the growth rate in May was lower than that in April, and the demand growth was not as expected, and the weak import and export was a major blow to the demand of zinc market. The two sessions did not release the obvious good news, which made the market lack of confidence in the future zinc market and the zinc price lost significant support. The continuous increase of zinc ingot production makes the stock of zinc market keep rising and the downward pressure of zinc market increase. Generally speaking, the demand is poor, the supply is surplus, and the zinc price in the future is weak. Zinc is expected to tumble in June.
| Melamine |