1、 Price trend
The average price of phosphoric acid in China on May 26 was 5200 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, up 16.2% compared with the same period last year, according to the bulk data list of the business agency. On May 25, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 113.66, unchanged from yesterday, 11.86% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 128.96 (2019-07-25), and 24.70% higher than the lowest point, 91.15, on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
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2、 Market analysis
Today, the phosphoric acid market is generally stable, and some enterprises are slightly down. In the near future, the fluctuation of yellow phosphorus at the raw material end is limited, the support for phosphoric acid is acceptable, the terminal demand is basically restored, but the export is still not smooth, the main market is domestic, the market transaction atmosphere is not warm and not hot, mainly to digest the early increase. In some areas, due to the maintenance plan of some downstream enterprises, the demand is slightly reduced, and the merchants reduce the price and make the shipment. On the whole, the release of terminal demand is weak, and businesses are more stable to wait and see. In the short term, the price of phosphoric acid has little change. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of May 26, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan was about 5000 yuan / ton – 5300 yuan / ton, that of Guangxi was about 5000 yuan / ton, that of Yunnan was about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Beijing was about 5100 yuan / ton, that of Hubei was about 5000 yuan / ton – 5300 yuan / ton, and that of some enterprises was slightly reduced 。
The downstream market of phosphate rock has been weak in recent days, with insufficient support. In Guizhou Province, the quotation of phosphate ore from many mining enterprises was slightly lowered and put into operation, with a decrease of 10-30 yuan / ton. Yunnan’s market is relatively stable, Hubei’s current weak sorting operation is the main, and Guangxi’s overall weak phosphate ore market is downward. It is expected that the phosphorus ore market will be weak and stable in recent days. The price of yellow phosphorus market fell, and the market trading atmosphere was general. Downstream wait-and-see mood is obvious, take goods carefully. The company basically has no inventory, and the on-site spot sales are OK. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the near future.
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According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are 0 rising commodities, 3 falling commodities and 2 rising and falling commodities in the price list of phosphorus chemical industry. The main commodities falling were phosphate rock (- 1.67%), yellow phosphorus (- 0.86%), monoammonium phosphate (- 0.18%). This week’s average was – 0.54%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the phosphoric acid analyst of business and social chemical branch, at present, there is not much change in the raw material end, the supporting force is acceptable, and the release of demand is not as expected. The phosphoric acid market as a whole has stabilized, and some enterprises’ prices have been slightly reduced to facilitate shipment. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will run smoothly in the short term.
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