According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA market price rose first and then fell this week. As of May 22, the average price of the domestic PTA spot market was 3560 yuan / ton, up 3.62% from the beginning of the week, down 40.9% year on year. Crude oil continued to strengthen, its own device maintenance increased, and suppliers bought back the spot again. Under this impetus, PTA price center continued to move up, but on the 22nd, the price fell back and adjusted, down 1.99% per day.
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In terms of equipment, the 400000 ton PTA plant of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was shut down for maintenance in the morning of May 18, with a planned maintenance period of 28 days. The 2.2-million-ton PTA plant of Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for maintenance from January 19, with a planned maintenance period of 1-2 weeks. The starting load of PTA in China decreased from 92% to 87%. In June, the maintenance plan of PTA mainly includes Hainan Yisheng, Xinjiang Zhongtai and Yizheng Chemical fiber. The expansion of profit level makes PTA plant maintenance willingness decline, which does not exclude the possibility of delaying maintenance. In terms of inventory, at the beginning of the year, the production capacity was put into production with high start-up rate, and now the social inventory is more than 3.5 million tons. In terms of processing fee, PTA processing fee has fluctuated between 700-800 yuan / ton since May, which is undoubtedly on the high side in the current stage of overcapacity, mainly due to the weakness of the upstream PX link and the continuous interest yield.
Enterprise name capacity device change
Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined
Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced maintenance on May 9, 2006
Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop for maintenance from May 19, with a planned maintenance period of 1-2 weeks
Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on April 17, and restart to be determined
Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July
Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop for maintenance in the morning on May 18, with a planned maintenance period of 28 days
Hainan Yisheng 200 plans to stop for maintenance for 12-15 days on June 5
The upstream crude oil market, supported by the supply contraction exceeding the expectation and the demand turning better, shows a pattern of fluctuating and rising prices. However, PX did not perform as expected, and its price remained weak. Despite the overhaul of some units in Asia in May, PX supply was still abundant. As of May 21, Asia’s closing prices were $488 / T FOB South Korea and $508 / T CFR China.
Average market price of polyester filament, unit: yuan / ton
Product: up and down on May 15, 2020, up and down on May 22, 2020
Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 6006 6331 5.41% – 22.28%
Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5334 5514 3.37% – 29.97%
Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elastic) 7045 7251 2.93% – 24.17%
Polyester staple (1.4d / 38mm) 6532 6682 2.30% – 20.25%
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The downstream polyester market rebounded slightly, of which the most obvious increase was polyester FDY, with a weekly increase of 5.41%, followed by polyester POY, polyester DTY and polyester staple, with an increase of 3.37%, 2.93% and 2.30% respectively. The trend of cost end is stronger, which further improves the price focus of polyester market, but the downstream replenishment is weak and cautious. From the perspective of the terminal textile market, the domestic and foreign trade markets have recovered to a certain extent since May, and the domestic demand has gradually recovered. The orders in the weaving market have slightly improved compared with the previous period, the goods are better than the previous period, the enthusiasm of manufacturers has increased, and the loom operating rate has risen by more than 62%. Some overseas countries announced the release of the seal, and the export was also quietly launched. It is reported that orders from Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia have been placed in succession recently.
In terms of textile exports, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in April 2020, China’s textile and clothing exports reached US $21.361 billion, an increase of 38.43% month on month and 9.77% year on year. Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarn, fabrics and products) was 14.620 billion US dollars, up 49.36% year on year; the export value of clothing (including clothing and accessories) was 6.739 billion US dollars, up 30.31% year on year. From January to April, China’s cumulative export of textiles and clothing was 66.626 billion US dollars, down 12.06% year on year, of which the cumulative export of textiles was 37.311 billion US dollars, up 2.90% year on year; the cumulative export of clothing was 29.308 billion US dollars, down 22.33% year on year.
Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that PTA market is stable and rising driven by the positive cost side. But it is worth noting that PTA “high inventory, high processing costs, high operating rate” has not been fundamentally resolved. At the same time, the internal and external trade of the downstream terminal is recovering slowly, and the order performance is not stable. At present, the purchase of raw materials remains rigid. If the follow-up orders cannot be followed up in time, the possibility of the loom load reduction again will not be ruled out in late June, and the substantial recovery still needs to be observed. Overall, negative factors remain, PTA prices continue to rise under pressure, or enter the stage of correction.
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