Since May, the raw materials phenol and acetone have been rising continuously, the BPA plant has been under pressure, and the market price has been rising unilaterally. According to the monitoring of business agency, the market offer was 8800 yuan / ton on May 5, and 9960 yuan / ton as of May 22, up 13.18% on the whole.
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Since May, phenol and acetone have shown an overall upward trend. Up to now, phenol offers 6600-6700 yuan / ton, and acetone offers 8000 yuan / ton. Therefore, the theoretical cost of BPA plant is 9902 yuan / ton, and the gross profit is 58 yuan / ton.
First of all, from the cost point of view, phenol, as an important raw material of bisphenol A products, has experienced twists and turns since May. After the market goes up, it will be recalled, and then it will continue to push up the price with insufficient driving force. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average offer of phenol Market in China was 6400 yuan / ton on May 5, 6800 yuan / ton on May 22, with an overall increase of 6.25%, of which 7012 yuan / ton was offered on May 10, with a maximum amplitude of 9.57%. By the time of publication, the offers of major mainstream regions in China were 6600-6700 yuan / ton in East China, 6600-6700 yuan / ton in South China, 6600-6700 yuan / ton in Shandong and surrounding areas of Yanshan. The consumption rate of phenol in the production unit of bisphenol A accounted for 0.87, the production cost of p-bisphenol a accounted for a large proportion, and the upward price of phenol after saving strongly supported the price of bisphenol A.
Acetone, another important raw material, accounts for 0.27% of BPA consumption rate in the production unit. Although the proportion is less than that of phenol, the cost of high valence acetone for BPA can not be ignored. After the festival, acetone overall showed a sharp push up and a narrow callback. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the acetone market offered 7325 yuan / ton on May 5, and 8175 yuan / ton on May 22, with an overall increase of 11.6% and a maximum amplitude of 13.58%. By the time of publication, the offers of major mainstream regions in China were 8000-8100 yuan / ton in East China, 7850-7950 yuan / ton in South China and 8400-8500 yuan / ton in Shandong and surrounding areas of Yanshan.
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Secondly, from the demand side, the downstream PC market as a whole shows a unilateral upward trend, rising from 12100 yuan / ton to 13433 yuan / ton, with an overall upward trend of 11.02%. The upward mobility of PC mainly comes from the implementation of the “one helmet one belt” policy. As the raw material for helmet front baffle production, the soaring helmet will surely benefit the raw materials, and the PC market will inevitably usher in a small peak of development, but helmet Technology The content is low, the service life is long, and the sharp rise trend is difficult to appear. In the long run, there is still a weak expectation in the domestic PC market. Another important downstream is the high-level finishing of epoxy resin. At present, the liquid epoxy resin is in the period of 19400-20000 yuan / ton. The downstream is in a slow recovery period, and the demand is gradually increasing. The upstream bisphenol A is the main one. After a large round of upward movement, the offer of epichlorohydrin is stable, and the price is relatively high. With the support of favorable cost and demand, the transaction of epoxy resin is gradually increasing. There is no pressure for resin factory to ship.
Thirdly, the domestic bisphenol a unit is 70-80% as a whole, among which, Sinopec Mitsubishi 180000 T / A, Lihua yiweiyuan 240000 T / A, Changchun 400000 T / a start-up are 80%, Kesi Chuang 410000 T / a bisphenol a unit is shut down on May 9, Sinopec Mitsui and Huizhou Zhongxin are operating at full load, but mainly for their own use, and some of the suppliers are long-term customers.
From the perspective of the whole phenol ketone industry chain, the overall increase is the main trend, the upstream pure benzene and propylene show a unilateral upward trend after the festival, and the middle and downstream products are also followed by the upper actors. From the macro perspective, WTI crude oil rose from 19.78 US dollars / barrel to 33.92 US dollars / ton after the festival, up 71.49%. The sharp rise of crude oil after the festival has formed a good support for petrochemical products. At present, the cost side has declined, and the terminal demand has not increased significantly. However, the start-up of BPA plant is relatively stable, and the market supply is fair. In the short term, the BPA market will continue to maintain a narrow trend and push up. However, due to the insufficient benefits, it is difficult to continue to rise in the future. The business society expects that the BPA market in East China will maintain at 9950-10100 yuan / ton, and long-term attention will be paid to the start-up of downstream plants.
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