Data shows that the natural rubber commodity index on May 22 was 29.68, down 0.48 points from yesterday, 70.32% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and 8.80% higher than the lowest point of 27.28 on April 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
As shown in the figure above, from the beginning of January to may 2020, the overall market of natural rubber shows a downward trend first and then a small upward trend, and the price at the end of March and the beginning of April is a phased bottom. According to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business association, the mainstream price of Baodao whole milk on January 1, 2020 is about 12130 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on April 2 is 9200 yuan / ton, with a drop of 24.15% since the beginning of the year. Since then, Tianjiao has been shaking upward until May 20, 10170 yuan / ton, with a rebound of 10.54%. In the first and middle of May, the whole price of Tianjiao fluctuated upward. The price of 9600 yuan / ton on the first day is also the lowest since this month. The price of 10170 yuan / ton on the 20th, the highest since this month, rebounded by 5.94%.
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Factor analysis:
Supply: China: the rubber cutting in the production area is still advancing slowly. Factors such as weather drought, insect disease and low rubber price caused by poor demand are concentrated on rubber farmers, resulting in weak willingness to cut rubber, small production of new rubber, local gap of new rubber and 19 year rubber in Banna production area, and price adjustment. Southeast Asia: it is expected that the drought in Southeast Asia will be alleviated to some extent in June, and the rubber cutting will be resumed gradually at that time, but the rubber volume caused by the drought will be delayed by about one month compared with that in previous years; at the same time, although the current rubber price is at a low price, but for the difficult economy during the epidemic period, the rubber agricultural rubber cutting can still maintain a relatively stable income, so the industry is expected to be around the middle and late June The rubber production in Southeast Asia will be significantly improved. Therefore, at present, the amount of new rubber at home and abroad has little impact on the market supply and more inventory consumption.
Inventory: data shows that as of May 22, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period was 239395 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 234550 tons, 80 tons and 160 tons less than last week respectively; from the perspective of the rubber inventory pressure of the exchange, the total latex and No. 20 rubber inventory decreased slightly. It is reported that the rubber stock in Qingdao free trade zone is at a high level and under heavy pressure. The turnover of USD glue Market in Qingdao Free Trade Zone improved slightly, and the price of Baodao whole milk was 10000 yuan / ton. The short-term domestic supply of new rubber is small, the overall domestic inventory is high, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still large.
Demand: tire enterprises: under the current situation, the operating rate of domestic and foreign tire enterprises is still at a low level. As of May 14, the operating rate of domestic semi steel tire manufacturers was 50.93%, up 23.27% month on month, down 14.78% year on year; the operating rate of all steel tire manufacturers was 69.61%, up 12.30% month on month, down 1.41% year on year. From the perspective of market reaction, domestic traders generally feel that the volume of rubber raw material transactions this month is far behind that of March and April, with a large gap. Automobile: according to the data of China Automobile Association, in April, China’s automobile production and sales were 2.012 million and 2.07 million respectively, up 46.6% and 43.5% on a month on month basis, up 2.3% and 4.4% on a year-on-year basis, respectively, and the automobile sales volume ended the decline for 21 consecutive months. However, as one of the most important auto parts, the output of tires has not gone out of the decline path. In April, the output of domestic rubber tires was 66.612 million, down 12.2% year-on-year; from January to April, the cumulative output was 218.072 million, down 17.4% year-on-year. In terms of tire export, according to the statistics of Qingdao Customs, in the first four months, Shandong’s foreign trade export amounted to 337.42 billion yuan, an increase of 0.9% from a decrease of 4.5% in the first quarter; tire export fell by 17% month on month, of which tire export fell by 8.4% in the first quarter.
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Macro policy: first of all, the government work report pointed out that it is expected to reduce the new burden for enterprises by more than 2.5 trillion yuan in the whole year. This year, we will continue to implement systems such as the reduction of value-added tax rate and enterprise endowment insurance rate, and increase tax cuts and reduce fees by about 500 billion yuan. In the early stage, the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction due before June was introduced, including exemption from the payment of small and medium-sized enterprises’ endowment insurance, unemployment insurance and work-related injury insurance units, reduction of small-scale taxpayers’ value-added tax, exemption from value-added tax on public transport, catering and accommodation, tourism and entertainment, culture and sports and other services, reduction of Civil Aviation Development Fund and port construction fees, and the implementation period was all extended to the end of this year. The payment of income tax for small and micro enterprises and individual businesses will be postponed to next year. It is expected to reduce the burden for enterprises by more than 2.5 trillion yuan in the whole year. Secondly, the government work report said that the loan extension policy for small and medium-sized micro enterprises should be extended to the end of March next year, the loan extension for inclusive small and micro enterprises should be extended to the full extent, and the loan negotiation for other difficult enterprises should be extended. The industry believes that the epidemic has disrupted the normal production and operation order of the rubber tire industry, the government work report has given the industry enterprises “reassurance”, the implementation of various tax preferential policies, and the use of “real gold and silver” to support the resumption of production and help the enterprise development.
Future forecast:
According to the analysis of the business club, the national two sessions and active fiscal policy may directly boost the nominal GDP growth of the whole year by 3-5 percentage points, which is conducive to the better resumption of production of rubber enterprises. From the perspective of domestic and international cutting situation, the current output is very small, which is not enough to impact the market. On the contrary, the prices in some regions with tight supply are very strong. From the perspective of downstream situation, tire enterprises will gradually benefit from favorable policies, with increased start-up, and the demand is expected to increase, but it also depends on the demand pulling situation of the consumer market; in some foreign regions, regardless of the epidemic situation, the “recovery of economy” may lead to demand. In the future, it mainly depends on the consumption stimulus and the play of the favorable role of policies. In June, the production of new rubber will directly affect the trend of Tianjiao. If the production and inventory increase, Tianjiao market may continue to be under pressure. However, in the short term, if a large number of new rubber is still not cut, Tianjiao market may have a wave of short-term strength on the premise that the stimulus plays an obvious role first.
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