In April, affected by the sluggish demand of China and India and other major coal importing countries, the international power coal market was more pessimistic, and the downward pressure on coal prices remained unchanged.
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According to the latest monitoring data of the General Administration of customs, in April 2020, China imported 30.948 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%; from January to April, China imported 126.726 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%, and the average import price was 510.1 yuan per ton, down 4.9%. Although the number of imported coal has increased, the average price still shows a downward trend, which to some extent reflects the essence of pressure operation of the international coal market.
“In April, China’s multi regional customs import policy tightened, while some power plants delayed the bidding plan for imported coal, and the international power coal market became more pessimistic; India, another big coal import country, began to implement the blocking measures in late March. In April, the coal import also “fell sharply. In addition, recently, the Indian government asked domestic power enterprises to use domestic coal to reduce the coal import used for mixing.” Analysts said.
The author finds that the demand of the two major coal importing countries has declined significantly, which aggravates the downward pressure of the international power coal price. In terms of Australian coal, the FOB price of Australian coal fell all the way in April. By the end of April, the FOB price of 5500 kcal of Australian coal had fallen to about $41, down $12 or 22.64% from about $53 at the beginning of the month. In terms of Indonesian coal, as of the end of April, the price of 3800 kcal of Indonesian coal was about 26 US dollars, which had fallen below the cost line of some coal mines, and some coal miners had taken measures to stop production; however, the reference price of power coal (HbAS) released by the Ministry of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia in May 2020 was 61.11 US dollars / ton, still 7.09% lower than the price of 65.77 US dollars / ton in April, a new low since August 2016; Compared with the same period of last year, 81.86 USD / ton decreased by 25.35%.
In addition, the Baltic dry bulk index fluctuated at a low level in April. As of April 29, the overall dry bulk index was 643 points, up 95 points or 17.34% from 548 points in the same period last month. The Baltic Capesize Index rose 995 points to 926, the Baltic Panamax index fell 12 points to 732, and the super convenience index fell 202 points to 404, or 33.33%.
“The CIF price continued to decline, the price of foreign mines was under pressure, the driving force for the rise of international sea freight was insufficient, and the CIF price of imported coal with calorific value continued to decline in April.” Ren Huiyun said. China’s power coal CIF index shows that as of April 24, the average value of each calorific value index in April has declined to varying degrees compared with the average value in March, among which the average value of 3800 kcal imported coal in South China in April is 32.92 USD / ton, down 5.55 USD / ton compared with the average value in March of 38.47 USD / ton, the most obvious decline, reaching 14.42%.
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One enterprise person told the author that in the near future, the contradiction between supply and demand still exists in China. With the temperature rising gradually, the daily consumption of key power plants has increased, but under the restriction of high inventory, it is still dominated by digesting its own inventory, the actual purchase demand is limited, and the support of demand for imported coal price under the background of supply exceeding demand is limited; However, after the sharp decline in the price of imported coal in the early stage, some miners have issued relevant quotation measures. On the whole, it is expected that the decline in the price of imported coal in the later stage will be gradually narrowed, and in the short term, the price of coal may be dominated by weak operation, and it is still necessary to focus on the changes in domestic demand and import policies.
However, for this month’s coal price aftermarket, Chen Tianyu, manager of power and coal department of Weihe energy price center, believes that the stability is stronger than the stability, and the spot downward momentum is not strong. But the rising space is not large for the time being. It is more influenced by emotions.
By the end of this afternoon, Zheng coal’s main contract in 2009 was on the rise, with the opening price of 505.6, closing price of 509.8, up 1.15% (5.8), trading volume of 110800 and position of 214400; the port price stabilized, high calorie and low sulfur coal varieties were in short supply, and the demand side of coal price rose against the demand for better performance.
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