1、 Price trend
On May 11, the TDI commodity index was 58.38, up 5.47 points from yesterday, down 76.46% from 248.02 (2016-10-19), and up 11.07% from 52.56, the lowest point on May 5, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now) according to the data of the large list of business agencies, the average price of TDI market in East China on November 11 was 11033.33 yuan / ton, up 10.33% per day.
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2、 Market analysis
Product: last week, the domestic market rose as a whole, the factory continued to release favorable information, and the company’s offer quickly increased. After the festival, the market rebounded under the good news of the factory. At present, the market remains on the sidelines. This week, favorable factors such as equipment maintenance and supply reduction will continue. The market may go higher. However, the downstream inventory is high, and the periodic replenishment has been completed. The inquiry atmosphere is weak, and the high price conflicts. There is a fear of volume reduction in trading. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills out of stock is 10200-10500 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills out of stock is 10500-10800 yuan / ton, which is subject to the actual delivery.
Industry chain: China’s domestic toluene market rebounded and rose last week. The market expectation was supported by the rise of international crude oil around the labor day. OPEC + started to reduce production and some European countries returned to work to boost production. The trend of strong international crude oil shocks was dominant. Affected by this, domestic methylbenzene price rebounded and rose this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3550 yuan / ton. In the short term, the supply of toluene after the festival is under pressure, and the market is expected to be stable in a narrow range.
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On the downstream side, due to the high stock of raw materials purchased at low price in the early stage, the downstream has a low acceptance of the current market rise, a small amount of hard goods need to be replenished in the field, and the overall digestion of the early stock is the main way to reduce the market entry operation. The on-site trading is mostly the early empty single closing position and the price tends to the low end, and the high price trading resistance is still large.
3、 Future forecast
According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency: at present, the domestic TDI market is generally strong, the supplier keeps releasing good news, and maintains a strong attitude towards the market, while the on-site dealers mostly follow the factory policy and maintain a wait-and-see state, the downstream has a low acceptance of high prices, and the intention to enter the market is cold. TDI market is expected to keep rising in the short term and pay attention to downstream acceptance in the later stage.
| EDTA 2Na |