According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the spot market price of PTA in China fell slightly. On May 11, the average market price was 3381 yuan / ton, down 0.49% compared with the previous trading day, down 49.54% year on year. The main futures in the futures market (2009) ended down in shock and closed at 3488, down 22% or 0.63% from the previous trading day.
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Due to the fall of crude oil, PTA buying is dominated by traders and polyester factories. The trading atmosphere in the spot market has declined, and the inventory is still in the accumulation cycle. In terms of units, the starting load remained at a high level near 92%. Shanghai Petrochemical planned to enter into maintenance on May 16. At present, Jialong petrochemical, Pengwei petrochemical, Liwan new material and Tianjin Petrochemical are still in the shutdown stage, with good profit level of the plant and delayed maintenance plan.
Enterprise name capacity device change
Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined
Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced maintenance on May 9, 2006
Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on April 17, and restart to be determined
Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July
Shanghai Petrochemical 40 plans to enter into maintenance on May 16
In the downstream polyester market, the production and marketing volume brought by the downstream stock up and fund bottom reading before and after the Qingming and may day double festival effectively alleviated the pressure of high inventory. The short-term polyester start-up performance was relatively stable. There was no clear maintenance and restart plan for the factory. A few factories intended to increase the inventory and load, and the start-up was maintained around 84%. At present, the price of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is relatively stable and wait-and-see mood is strong. The enthusiasm for purchasing is significantly reduced, and the transaction atmosphere is mainly light. Among them, polyester POY (150D / 48F) is reported at 5400-5550 yuan / ton.
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The weaving end is the most direct response to the change of terminal demand. The weaving start-up load began to fall back in late March. There was a large area of parking and holiday phenomenon in Qingming Festival. Even though the start-up rate after the festival rose slightly, with the shutdown of May Day holiday, the current operating rate decreased to 40%. At the same time, affected by this public health event, foreign trade enterprises still face many difficulties, such as cancellation or postponement of orders, difficulty in signing new orders, and poor logistics. From January to April 2020, the cumulative export of textile and clothing reached 66.62 billion US dollars, down 10%, of which 37.31 billion US dollars were textile exports, up 2.9%, and 29.31 billion US dollars were clothing exports, down 22.3%. In April, driven by the export of respirators and other anti epidemic products, China’s textile exports reached 14.62 billion US dollars, up 51.06% year on year, and clothing exports reached 6.74 billion US dollars, down 27.7%.
Xia Ting, an analyst with business news agency, believes that in terms of crude oil, the collapse of demand has led to a serious global crude oil surplus, leading to tight storage capacity. Although OPEC + and US crude oil have plans to reduce production, the pressure on crude oil surplus can hardly be eased in the short term. It is expected that the oil price will mainly fluctuate at a low level, and the driving force of sustained rebound is not strong. At the same time, there are not many expected devices for PTA maintenance at present, the starting load remains high, and the downstream polyester load continues to increase with high pressure, PTA supply pressure remains, high inventory or become the normal PTA, and it is expected that the social inventory of PTA will reach a high value of 4 million tons in May June. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, PTA price volatility is more likely to be weak adjustment.
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