1、 Price trend
According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic toluene market price rebounded and rose this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3500 yuan / ton, up 5.74% on last week.
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2、 Analysis and comment
1. Product: with the entry into may, the OPEC + production reduction agreement came into effect, and many countries in Europe and the United States gradually restarted their economies. During the 5.1 long holiday, the international crude oil rebounded sharply. Affected by this, the domestic toluene price rebounded and rose this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3550 yuan / ton.
2. Industrial chain:
Upstream, in terms of crude oil, with the gradual economic restart in Europe and the United States, the crude oil market gradually transited from a state of declining demand, near saturation of storage capacity, worrying that the reduction of production is less than expected to a state of demand recovery, and a rebalancing process of supply and demand with declining production. On May 7, Saudi Aramco announced a substantial increase in the price of oil for Europe in June, which led to a strong rebound in international crude oil prices. As of early Friday morning, Brent rose 29.62%, Brent futures rose 17.68%, WTI futures rose 17.41%, and Dubai futures rose 25.12%.
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In the downstream, the TDI market is slightly stronger, and the quotation keeps rising. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 9600-10000 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai goods with bills is 9900-10200 yuan / ton, and that of Wanhua chemical in May is 12000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable and small rebound trend, and pay close attention to the later information guidance of the factory and the actual market delivery Investment situation. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4000 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the external market is about 471 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 491 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the price of PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Toluene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: in the short term, we can see the supply cost end, OPEC + production reduction, crude oil futures delivery trend in June, and the situation in the United States and Iraq. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the delivery trend of crude oil futures in June. In general, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market next week will depend on the trend of crude oil.
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