1、 Overall trend
In April, the three major varieties of domestic polyethylene market showed a trend of first promotion and then suppression, with the overall increase being the main trend, and the market transaction atmosphere improved compared with the previous period. As of April 30, the average ex factory price of LLDPE 7042 in East China was 6300 yuan / ton, up 5.00% from the beginning of the week; the average ex factory price of LDPE 2426h in East China was about 7325 yuan / ton, up 5.02% from the beginning of the month; the average ex factory price of HDPE 5000S in East China was 7050 yuan / ton, up 3.42% from the beginning of the week; the three PE varieties rose 200-300 yuan / ton this month.
| ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate) |
2、 Market analysis
International crude oil: the international oil price once fell to a negative number in April, the market panic spread, most of the time in a volatile soft trend. On April 9, the OPEC + special meeting ended, and its production reduction volume was lower than the market expectation, and the oil price fell again; on April 14, the international oil price fell again, mainly because OPEC + and other oil producing countries’ production reduction agreement disappointed the market, the production reduction share was difficult to offset the decline of fuel demand caused by the new crown epidemic, and the U.S. crude oil inventory exceeded the expectation, which increased the market panic atmosphere; on April 20 On April 23, the WTI crude oil futures market in the U.S. rebounded and the price rose for two consecutive days. The Brent crude oil futures market continued to decline and the price fell sharply. In May, the contract fell to a negative range, but in June, the negative value was the exception, not the normal state of the global crude oil market. Until April 23, the WTI crude oil futures market in the U.S. rebounded and the price rose for two consecutive days, the Brent crude oil futures market price rose sharply, which is also the international crude oil company WTI rose more than 40% in the following two days, mainly due to the accelerated production reduction of oil producing countries and the geopolitical turmoil of peripheral factors.
Ethylene: in April, the overall trend of ethylene fell. Asian ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 27th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $350-360 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $325-335 / T. European ethylene market prices fell, as of the 27th, with FD northwest Europe closing at $373-386 / T and CIF northwest Europe closing at $314-325 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region has declined. As of the 27th, the price is US $187-199 / ton. Generally speaking, in April, the market of ethylene in Europe and the United States continued to decline, and the price of the whole ethylene market has kept breaking the lowest point. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.
| povidone Iodine |
Manufacturer’s trends: in the first half of April, the factory price of petrochemicals took the lead. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil rebounded, and the futures market was running at a high level, which gave a significant boost to the market. Most of the petrochemical manufacturers raised their factory prices continuously, and the market cost was well supported. Businesses took the opportunity to increase their enthusiasm for entering the market. In the second half of April, the factory price of petrochemicals was mainly reduced. With the continuous rise of the price in the first half of the month, the lower reaches are in conflict with the high price, and the purchase is not active. In addition, the international crude oil continues to plummet, which severely depresses the PE market. The industry has a strong sense of short-sightedness and is mainly on the lookout. In order to reduce the inventory of petrochemical enterprises, the price has been lowered frequently, the market cost support has been reduced, the attitude of the businessmen is pessimistic, and the price has fallen. At present, the resumption of work is slow under the influence of social public health events. In addition to the surging demand for some medical PE films, the market demand is limited.
Futures trend: the futures market rose in April, which was good for PE spot market to some extent. On April 30, the opening price of polyethylene futures l2009 was 6150, the highest price was 6190, the lowest price was 6020, the closing price was 6180, the former settlement price was 6110, the settlement price was 6110, up 70, or 1.15%, the trading volume was 423283, the position was 328375, and the daily increase was – 10925. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)
3、 Future forecast
At the end of the month, the international crude oil rebounded sharply, and the linear futures market also rose, bringing certain benefits to the market. This month, petrochemicals reduced its inventory well, and the inventory was at a normal level. The demand for PE medical film increased and the order increased, which brought a certain boost to the market. But at present, the peak season of film demand has passed, and the off-season is coming, and the terminal demand is expected to decrease. It is expected that the polyethylene market may have a narrow rise in the short term, and it may still fall in the long term.
| Melamine |